Pig outlook: Solid rebound in lean hog futures suggests more upside

 

Jim Wyckoff, The Pig Site

19 November 2021

 

February lean hog futures this week hit a five-week high and the bulls have established a price uptrend on the daily bar chart, to suggest sideways-to-higher price action in the near term, reports livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff.

 

Signs of stabilization in the CME lean hog index this week have helped hog futures extend gains. High beef prices at the retail level are also prompting substitution demand for pork, including solid demand for hams ahead of the holiday season.

 

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USDA’s annual livestock outlook

 

US beef exports as a share of production are expected to fall slightly from 12.4 percent in 2021 to 12.1 percent in 2022. Both production and exports of beef are expected to decrease from 2021 to 2022. The share of U.S. pork production exported is expected to increase from 26.0 to 26.8 percent from 2021 to 2022, as production is forecast to decline slightly in 2022 while exports increase by about 3 percent year over year.

 

Pork/Hogs: Continued lower processing demand for hogs in the fourth quarter is expected to be largely offset by heavier average dressed weights, leaving the commercial pork production forecast largely unchanged from last month at 7.2 billion pounds, down by more than 4 percent from the same period a year ago. Forecasts for pork exports both this year and in 2022 are unchanged from last month. This year, exports are forecast at 7.2 billion pounds, down about 1 percent, and in 2022 exports are expected to be 7.4 billion pounds, 3 percent higher than shipments in 2021.

 

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more, including charts

https://www.thepigsite.com/articles/pig-outlook-solid-rebound-in-lean-hog-futures-suggests-more-upside