Recovery of Chinese and North American pork markets will drive down pork prices says Rabobank
By Iain Hoey, Pig World (UK)
November 19, 2021
Global meat producers face a leadership test as the disruptions affecting food markets pose challenges but also bring opportunities to drive long-term growth, according to Rabobank’s latest annual Global Animal Protein Outlook.
The research predicted that pork production will keep growing in 2022, but after strong growth in 2021, the outlook is for more modest expansion. Pork production is expected to continue to recover in 2022, subject to various uncertainties, keeping prices volatile, with imports predicted to decline further in the first half of 2022 before picking up in H2.
North American pork production is expected to see a 0.8% increase in 2022 versus year-ago levels, as a 1.4% drop in the first half of 2022 US production is expected to be offset by a stronger back-half and a recovery in Mexico and Canada. US pork prices are expected to remain strong on limited growth in production but will trend lower as domestic consumption normalizes.
The decline in Europe’s pork exports in the second half 2021 created an oversupply situation in domestic markets, leading to a sharp decline in pig prices. Rabobank has predicted the pork market will gradually rebalance in 2022, with production contracting by at least 0.5%. Pig prices are expected to remain pressured for much of 2022, as EU27+UK pork exports will likely decline on lower shipments to China.
ASF continues to affect China’s pork industry, particularly among smaller producers, although improved biosecurity has been helping larger producers to limit disease outbreaks. Rabobank says the impact will decline in 2022 but will not disappear. China’s herd recovery, particularly the sow herd, proceeded well in 2021, paving the way for further recovery in 2022. However, the weak performance in the second half of 2021 due to Covid-related lockdowns, will slow restocking and recovery, as many small producers liquidated their herds.
The report, which analyses meat and seafoods markets around the world, predicted that although the disruption that has permeated sectors throughout 2021 will persist next year, progressive animal protein businesses can turn the changes within the market into an opportunity for growth...
Chinese Pork Imports Returning to Pre-ASF Numbers
Dr. Arkin Wu - Pipestone Nutrition
Farmscape for November 18, 2021
The Director of Nutrition and Tech Services with Pipestone Nutrition expects Chinese pork imports to return to pre-African Swine Fever levels by the end of this year due a faster than expected restoration of China's swine numbers.
"What’s Happening in the Chinese Pig Industry?" was discussed yesterday as part of Saskatchewan Pork Industry Symposium 2021.
Dr. Arkin Wu, the Director of Nutrition and Tech Services with Pipestone Nutrition, says African Swine fever, which hit at the end of 2018, reduced China's sow herd by 30 to 40 percent and the finishing pig inventory by about half but, by the end of 2020, the sow herd had recovered and by the second quarter of this year the market was flooded with finishing pigs.
Clip-Dr. Arkin Wu-Pipestone Nutrition:
Before ASF China normally imported about one million metric tons of pork products along with about another one million metric tons of edible offals, so together it only consisted of about two to three percent of the total pig supply in China, a fairly small portion.
During ASF in 2019 and 2020, imports quickly ramped up to about four million metric tons per year, primarily from South America, Europe and some from U.S.-Canada back then.
In 2020 that consisted of about 14 percent of the total pig supply.
In 2021, based on the numbers in the first eight months, the import volumes are similar to 2020, last year but I would anticipate in the last quarter of this year the import volume would decrease quite a bit because of an over supply of domestic pigs here in China.