Rabbobank releases 2022 protein outlook

Rabbobank expects the global demand for beef to remain strong in 2022.


Source: Rabbobank

via Beef Magazine - Nov 18, 2021


Itís almost the end of 2021 and most livestock producers are looking towards 2022. Rabobank released its annual Global Animal Protein Outlook.


The report looks at the beef, poultry, pork and seafood markets in North America and global issues such as sustainable production and African swine fever.


Beef producers will be glad to know beef cow liquidation is expected to continue in 2022, with stronger cattle prices and steep 2021 reductions slowing the pace.


Fed cattle supply vs. operational packing capacity =2022


Estimated fed cattle supply averaged 15 percent above operational packing capacity in 2020 and 2021.


By the second quarter in 2022, cattle numbers and packing capacity will find relative balance. Rabbobank expects 2022 annual fed slaughter to fall by 2.5% year over year. Although packers will still have healthy margins compared to pre-pandemic levels, the price spread between beef and cattle will begin a multiyear narrowing trend in 2022.


Even as domestic beef demand (willingness to pay) falls slightly from its pandemic highs, continued export growth, declining beef production (down 2.7% Year over year), and general economic inflation will provide price support.


Despite the production decline, China will spur a 2.8% year over year total US beef export growth in 2022, following 2021ís expected 17% year over year growth. We expect US beef cow numbers to fall 1.8% year over year, to a January 1, 2022 inventory of 30.6m head.


Mexico, Canada ...


A look across the globe ...†


Tightness in the global beef market ...


China beef supply will remain tight ...†


Australian production to lift in 2022 ...


Stronger prices are expected to remain ...†


Pressures ...


Consumers ...