USDA WASDE Livestock Forecast
USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Oct 12, 2021
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2021 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower pork, broiler, and turkey forecasts more than offset a higher beef forecast.
Beef production is raised from the previous month as lower expected steer and heifer slaughter are more than offset by higher cow slaughter and heavier average carcass weights.
The pork production forecast is reduced on lower expected fourth quarter hog slaughter.
Broiler and turkey production forecasts are reduced on recent hatchery and slaughter data. The egg production forecast is reduced slightly.
For 2022, the total red meat and poultry forecast is reduced from the previous month.
Although higher expected placements of cattle in second half 2021 are expected to support higher early-year supplies of fed cattle, placements in the first half of 2022 are lowered and fed cattle supplies in the second half or 2022 are expected to be tighter.
USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on September 24, estimated a lower pig crop for June-August and lower farrowing intentions for September-November. This supports lower hog slaughter expectations for first half 2022. Slower expected growth in pigs per litter during 2022 resulted in lower expected hog supplies in the second half of the year.
Broiler and turkey production forecasts are reduced on expectations of a relatively slow response to improving margins. The 2022 egg production forecast is unchanged.
For 2021 and 2022, beef import forecasts are raised reflecting continued strength in demand while the export forecasts are unchanged.
The pork import forecasts are raised on increased supplies of pork on the global market.
The pork export forecast for 2021 is reduced on weaker expected demand from China and increased competition in global markets; however, exports are increased for 2022 as growth in several key markets recovers.
The broiler export forecast for 2021 is raised slightly, but no change is made to the 2022 forecast. Turkey export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are lowered from last month.
Fed cattle prices for 2021 are lowered on current price movements and relatively large supplies of fed cattle. However, the 2022 price forecast is raised on tighter expected supplies of cattle.
The 2021 and 2022 hog price forecasts are raised on lower expected hog supplies.
Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised for 2021 and 2022 on lowered production.
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