[Weds] “If pork values turn down, cash markets could drift lower as slaughter supply increases seasonally in the next six weeks,” ADM Investor Services said. “The market is technically overbought and vulnerable to a downside correction. However, the downside could be limited as the market already holds a stiff discount to the cash market.” / National Daily Hog and Pork Summary: Natl: $70.01, -$1.25; IA/MN: N/A; WCB: $70.35; ECB: $70.22; Cutout: $112.86, +$4.73 …

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

Wed 10/6/2021 4:51 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base was $1.25 lower to $70.01/cwt.

National live was down $2.30 to $54.65

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base price was not reported due to confidentiality

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were $4.73 higher to $112.86/cwt.

 

“If pork values turn down, cash markets could drift lower as slaughter supply increases seasonally in the next six weeks,” ADM Investor Services said. “The market is technically overbought and vulnerable to a downside correction. However, the downside could be limited as the market already holds a stiff discount to the cash market.”

 

“Technically, the hog market has turned into an uptrend, but with such a strong rally after the Hogs and Pigs reports, the market was due for some correction, since the market is in the middle,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Support levels were held today but may need strong retail and export numbers to initiate new buying.”

 

Cattle choppy, but higher

 

“Overall, (cattle) trade on Wednesday was choppy, but front-month futures pulled in line with the start of cash trade for the week,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Light to moderate trade developed today with most deals tagged at $124 in the South, steady to $1 higher in some areas… The bulk of trade will likely develop more into the end of the week.”

 

“Thursday also brings the next round of (pork) export sales numbers,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Last week was strong at 42,000 mt, and the market will be watching the actions of China on the report. The Lean Hog Index traded 0.06 higher to 94.11. Holding a premium to October and December hogs should help support the front of the market.”

 

Crop markets swing as corn, soybeans drop

 

It was a day of swings for crop markets, as overnight moves higher were follower by a down day for corn and soybeans. “Wild day in the markets with higher trade over night and early in the morning but seeing a one-two punch lower for the row crops, shortly after the break,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said.

 

Analysts are watching trends in the soybean basis, and what impact it could have for markets. “The national average soybean basis according to cmdtyVew is 42 cents under November. Cash bids for November delivery have been between 40-50 cents under the Nov board price since February,” Brugler Marketing said.

 

Corn

 

“The corn market traded lower as the harvest ramps up and reports of as expected or better than expected yields,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Losses were limited somewhat from strength in the wheat market. Weekly ethanol production increased 64,000 barrels per day this week to 978,000 barrels per day, while stocks dropped slightly to just below 20.0 mln barrels.”

 

“Demand will be a feature in the trade moving forward as the harvest moves to its halfway point,” Jack Scoville, Price Futures Group, said. “Trends are mixed to up on the weekly charts and are mixed on the daily charts. Initial yield reports have been mixed, with some lower yields reported due to disease.”

 

Soybeans

 

Soybeans also moved lower Wednesday due to a number of factors. “Soybeans were on the defensive from weakness in soyoil and harvest pressure,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Soyoil tumbled on a bout of profit taking while the soymeal market got some relief as the bargain hunters appeared to have surfaced.”

 

Traders are watching updates on exports from Brazil. "Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported soybean shipments to China reached 3.5 MMT during September,” Brugler Marketing said. “In September 2020 Brazil shipped China 3.3 MMT. Total bean shipments from Brazil during September were 4.8 MMT.”

 

Wheat

 

“The wheat market squirreled higher on a bit of bargain buying interest with gains limited from slowed demand for US wheat,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Egypt bought 180,000 tonnes of Russian wheat and 60,000 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat for November shipment from $350-$352/tonne C&F.”

 

“The US and Canada have reduced production this year and so do most exporters around the world,” Jack Scoville, Price Futures Group, said. “Production is less this year in Russia and internal prices have been strong. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market.”

 

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