US-China Trade Prospects: A Short Term Outlook


by Timothy Wier, The Pig Site

19 July 2021


Even though 2020 was a tumultuous year, the effects of the Phase One agreement show a positive path forward for the US – China trade relationship.


“The trade war knocked it down, but we're back on trend,” said Jason Hafemeister, Acting Deputy Undersecretary for the TFAA, during his presentation at USDA’s 97th Annual Ag Outlook Forum. “We see a lot of potential in a free trade environment to significantly expand our sales.”


When China was admitted to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, it was a $1 billion market. Today, it’s $25 billion. Besides the trade war, U.S. agricultural exports to China have increased year over year.


Before the trade war, the US sold $24 million in agricultural products to China. This accounted for 20-25% of all Chinese ag product imports. In 2018 and 2019, the tariffs impeded US sales in China, reducing that market share down to 10%.


Now, however, US market share has increased to 14%. While that may seem like an increase, the fact that the Chinese market is growing and competitive makes it a less impressive figure. Additionally, the US failed to hit the $36 billion target outlined in the Phase One agreement.


The US also faces stiff competition from other nations in several key areas:  ... 


Impact of the Phase One Agreement ...


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