[Mon.]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary: $106.24, -$1.08; IA/MN: $110.36; WCB: $109.22; ECB: N/A; Cutout: $121.85, +$1.91 / Supply is expected to increase gradually in the weeks and months ahead, The Hightower Report said. “With exports above 30% of the total production, if China backs away from the import market, there will be more to absorb in the U.S.,” he said....
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Mon 7/19/2021 4:48 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base down $1.08 to $106.24/cwt.
National live had no comparison, reported at $80.93
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was reported at $110.36
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.91 at $121.85/cwt.
New cases of African Swine Fever were found in Germany, which could push hog prices higher, Total Farm Marketing said. “China cancelling pork export sales not good for global demand,” they said.
Supply is expected to increase gradually in the weeks and months ahead, The Hightower Report said. “With exports above 30% of the total production, if China backs away from the import market, there will be more to absorb in the U.S.,” he said.
Mon 7/19/2021 8:28 AM
Hogs probing for a short-term peak as the outlook for increasing supply along with a pullback in demand from China could spark lower pricing, The Hightower Report said. Some of the short-term news is positive for the market, but a slowdown in buying from China and news of a very vast growth in the China pig herd are seen as limiting factors for the rally.
USDA’s national pork carcass cutout value for Friday was $0.42 stronger to $119.94. Estimated slaughter for the week through Saturday is 2.28 million head. That is down from 2.517 million head for the same week last year, and not comparable to last week due to the July 4th holiday, said Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing. Year-to-date slaughter, at 69.287 million head, is trailing last year’s pace by 152,000 head.
Mon 7/19/2021 4:48 PM
COVID concerns hitting livestock
Cattle markets are trading lower as the stock market is collapsing and traders are “nervous of a setback in demand,” The Hightower Report said. “Rising COVID cases worldwide does not help,” they said.
Hogs, meanwhile, were choppy and two-sided, “but outside market forces were enough to drive the market sharply lower,” The Hightower Report said. “News that China pork imports for the month of June were down significantly from a year ago helped to pressure the market.”
Outside concerns hit grain markets
There are concerns about the global economy slowing down again as the COVID delta variant spreads around the United States and the World, Bryant Sanderson of CHS Hedging said.
That concern spilled over to the grain markets as well, Total Farm Marketing said. “Sharp losses in the stock market and energy complex likely had more to do with today’s losses.”
After a strong overnight session, the corn market continued to show signs of strength, Bryant Sanderson of CHS Hedging said. However, concerns about outside market pressure caused the market to fade back to slightly lower levels to close the day.
Brazilian corn values “continue to soar with production shortages,” Total Farm Marketing said. Hot and dry Ukrainian weather are also threatening corn production numbers globally, they said.
The national corn condition is at 65% good-to-excellent, holding steady from last week.
Soybean markets dropped when the market opened as equity markets put pressure on prices, Bryant Sanderson of CHS Hedging said.
The drop today is a “negative technical pattern,” ADM Investor Services said. There is concern about the 2021 crop “due to dryness across the NW Midwest” and an increase in COVID cases.
The national soybean condition rating is at 60% good-to-excellent, an increase of one point from last week.
Wheat in Minneapolis is “once again” putting in new contract highs, Total Farm Marketing said as drought continues to bolster the futures market. “Canada’s crop is believed to be largely overstated,” they said.
Dry weather in Russia is also offering support to the wheat market, ADM Investor Services said, while wet weather in the EU “also raised concern about quality there.”
Spring wheat conditions are at 11% good-to-excellent, a 5 point decline from last week, while 63% of the crop is in the very poor and poor categories.