Pig outlook: lean hog futures bulls back in business

US pig prices rebound this week as the economic outlook from China grows stronger.


Jim Wyckoff, The Pig Site

16 July 2021


The pig trader's perspective


August lean hog futures prices this week hit a three-week high and have made a strong rebound from the June low, to suggest more upside price action in the near term.


The lowest US hog slaughter levels of the year paired with strong consumer demand should continue to lift prices. Pork production the week ending 10 July dropped 16.2% from the week prior (though that did include some holiday downtime), with average hog weights diving 21 lbs for the week.


Recent reports of new cases of ASF in China have once more amplified attention on Chinese demand, but a surge in China’s second-quarter pork production could dampen near-term export prospects. Still, good US retail and consumer demand at present, and good supplies moving through the pipeline, suggest that cash and futures markets can continue to move up.


The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges


·         August lean hog futures-$102.10 to $110.00 and with a higher bias

·         December soybean meal futures-$355.20 to $383.50, and with a sideways-higher bias

·         December corn futures-$5.20 to $5.80 and a sideways-higher bias


Latest news from the USDA

USDA sees higher global pork output ...


US pork weekly exports sales disappoint ... 


USDA provides details on animal depopulation/disposal assistance ... 


Swine industry news from China

Chinese pork production hits seven-year high ... 


China’s meat imports rising ...  


China removes restrictions for its small hog farms ...


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