[Fri]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary: Natl: $107.32, -$3.44; IA/MN: N/A; WCB: $109.12; ECB: N/A; Cutout: $119.94, +$0.42 / “The hog market has been firm this week on improving fundamentals, despite a soft export report on Thursday,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Additional buying support to end the week may have come from the announcement of a case of ASF being found in a German hog herd. This was the first case that was not found in only wild hogs” ...
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 7/16/2021 4:49 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported:
National carcass base was $3.44 lower to $107.32/cwt.
National live price was not reported due to confidentiality
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base price was not reported due to confidentiality
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 42 cents to $119.94/cwt.
Analysts are expecting higher production domestically and in China.
“In addition, weekly production levels are likely to increase in the weeks and months ahead as the seasonal advance in slaughter should continue through November,” the Hightower Report said. “Pork cutout values at midsession came in at $123.10, up $3.58 on the day.”
“The hog market has been firm this week on improving fundamentals, despite a soft export report on Thursday,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Additional buying support to end the week may have come from the announcement of a case of ASF being found in a German hog herd. This was the first case that was not found in only wild hogs.”
ASF news moves hog markets
It was a fairly choppy day to end the week, but ended up being a day of liquidation.
“August cattle closed moderately lower on the session and closed near the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “The market experienced choppy and two-sided trade early in the day but COVID concerns and a weak stock market may have sparked long liquidation selling into the weekend.”
“The continued strong advance in pork cutout values plus news of African swine fever in Germany were factors to support the strong gains in the hog market,” the Hightower Report said. “Some of the short-term news is positive for the market but the slowdown in buying from China, and news of the very fast growth in the China pig heard are seen as limiting factors for a rally.”
Weather will be market mover
“The big market mover in the weeks ahead will be weather, as the crop approaches critical pod filling and maturity stages,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Much of the Midwest was blanketed with sold rains in recent weeks, yet a warmer and drier forecast for the western and northwestern regions of the Midwest suggest reaching a (soybean) yield of 51 bu./acre could be in jeopardy.”
The grains complex saw mixed trade today with slightly lower corn, Patti Uhrich, with CHS Hedging, said. Soybeans and wheat were higher.
“The bullish argument continues to center around weather concerns for regions of the Midwest, namely the west and northwest areas, which remain on the dry side and have little rain in the forecast,” Total Farm Marketing said. “The critical pollination window, as well as ear setting, may be affected by less-than-ideal moisture and warmer-than-normal temperatures.”
Corn markets did manage to make some gains in the morning on Friday, but then faded lower later in the day.
“The corn market wasn’t able to hang on to the early morning gains,” Patti Uhrich, with CHS Hedging, said. “Corn started out the day higher but faded as the day went on, ending lower.”
The generally hot and dry weather forecast helped push soybeans higher to end the week. Overall, it was a week of climbing higher for soybean markets.
“The soybean market closed higher on the hot/dry weather forecast,” Patti Uhrich, with CHS Hedging, said. “… Price change for the week: August up 75½, November up 62½.”
“Soybeans traded higher but ended off session highs,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Traders want to see lower U.S. 2021 crop and higher demand before trading over key resistance. … Sunday’s U.S. Midwest two-week weather forecast will be key for prices.”
The hotter, drier forecast did provide support for wheat markets, which went higher Friday. “Wheat was higher led by Minneapolis wheat sharply higher on hot/dry forecasts,” Patti Uhrich, with CHS Hedging, said. "The USDA announced a sale this morning of SRW wheat to China of 134 tmt for the 2021/2022 marketing year.”
Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said, “Dry weather across North American HRS crop areas pushed MWU to a new high. This is the first time MWU has traded over $9 since October 2012. WU ended near $6.92. Range was $6.70-6.94. $6.94 is near the July 1 high. WU saw the biggest weekly gain in four years.”