[Fri]: Afternoon National Slaughter Cattle Review / … “With choppy trade in the cash market and a steady decline in the beef market, traders seem to lack the confidence for aggressive buying,” the Hightower Report said. “On the other hand, weights are down and suggest feedlots are current with marketings… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 2,139 head sold live for $121-123, and 160 head sold live for $196. In Iowa/Minnesota, there were 951 head sold live for $122-126, and no dressed sales… Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 7/16/2021 4:49 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower on both Choice and Select, the USDA said.
Choice was $1.93 lower to $267.94/cwt.
Select was down 69 cents to $251.79.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 2,139 head sold live for $121-123, and 160 head sold live for $196. In Iowa/Minnesota, there were 951 head sold live for $122-126, and no dressed sales.
“With choppy trade in the cash market and a steady decline in the beef market, traders seem to lack the confidence for aggressive buying,” the Hightower Report said. “On the other hand, weights are down and suggest feedlots are current with marketings. Boxed beef cutout values that midsession came in at $267.63, down $2.24 on the day.”
"Despite the weakness today, August cattle finished the week 0.950 higher, but October gained a slight 0.025,” Total Farm Marketing said. “August cattle were firmer the majority of the week in anticipation of firm cash markets, but as prices were unimpressive, the premium faded to get the futures more aligned with cash. Cash trade was quiet today, as most trade was complete.”
ASF news moves hog markets
It was a fairly choppy day to end the week, but ended up being a day of liquidation.
“August cattle closed moderately lower on the session and closed near the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “The market experienced choppy and two-sided trade early in the day but COVID concerns and a weak stock market may have sparked long liquidation selling into the weekend.”
“The continued strong advance in pork cutout values plus news of African swine fever in Germany were factors to support the strong gains in the hog market,” the Hightower Report said. “Some of the short-term news is positive for the market but the slowdown in buying from China, and news of the very fast growth in the China pig heard are seen as limiting factors for a rally.”
Weather will be market mover
“The big market mover in the weeks ahead will be weather, as the crop approaches critical pod filling and maturity stages,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Much of the Midwest was blanketed with sold rains in recent weeks, yet a warmer and drier forecast for the western and northwestern regions of the Midwest suggest reaching a (soybean) yield of 51 bu./acre could be in jeopardy.”
The grains complex saw mixed trade today with slightly lower corn, Patti Uhrich, with CHS Hedging, said. Soybeans and wheat were higher.
“The bullish argument continues to center around weather concerns for regions of the Midwest, namely the west and northwest areas, which remain on the dry side and have little rain in the forecast,” Total Farm Marketing said. “The critical pollination window, as well as ear setting, may be affected by less-than-ideal moisture and warmer-than-normal temperatures.”
Corn markets did manage to make some gains in the morning on Friday, but then faded lower later in the day.
“The corn market wasn’t able to hang on to the early morning gains,” Patti Uhrich, with CHS Hedging, said. “Corn started out the day higher but faded as the day went on, ending lower.”
The generally hot and dry weather forecast helped push soybeans higher to end the week. Overall, it was a week of climbing higher for soybean markets.
“The soybean market closed higher on the hot/dry weather forecast,” Patti Uhrich, with CHS Hedging, said. “… Price change for the week: August up 75½, November up 62½.”
“Soybeans traded higher but ended off session highs,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Traders want to see lower U.S. 2021 crop and higher demand before trading over key resistance. … Sunday’s U.S. Midwest two-week weather forecast will be key for prices.”
The hotter, drier forecast did provide support for wheat markets, which went higher Friday. “Wheat was higher led by Minneapolis wheat sharply higher on hot/dry forecasts,” Patti Uhrich, with CHS Hedging, said. "The USDA announced a sale this morning of SRW wheat to China of 134 tmt for the 2021/2022 marketing year.”
Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said, “Dry weather across North American HRS crop areas pushed MWU to a new high. This is the first time MWU has traded over $9 since October 2012. WU ended near $6.92. Range was $6.70-6.94. $6.94 is near the July 1 high. WU saw the biggest weekly gain in four years.”