[Weds]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary: Natl: $113.79, IA/MN: $116.86, WCB: $116.87, ECB: $112.70, Cutout: $118.69 / “Pork prices have rallied along with the cash market in recent days, but the upside looks limited if exports back away at all,” the Hightower Report said. “Exports have been very strong so far this year led by China but China may begin to back away from importing pork over the near term as China pork prices remain in a steep downtrend”...

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

Wed 7/14/2021 4:32 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base was up $1.49 to $113.79/cwt.

National live was $3.04 higher to $84.10

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was $116.86

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were down 12 cents to $118.69/cwt.

 

“Pork prices have rallied along with the cash market in recent days, but the upside looks limited if exports back away at all,” the Hightower Report said. “Exports have been very strong so far this year led by China but China may begin to back away from importing pork over the near term as China pork prices remain in a steep downtrend.”

 

“Aggressive rally in futures has left price gaps that will keep trade nervous,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Packers not shy about willing to bid more to get supply. Futures may rise even higher if tomorrow’s export report is strong. Hog slaughter projected at 467,000.”

 

Hogs correct, cattle lower

 

“August cattle closed moderately lower on the session as the rally above yesterday's high failed to attract new buying interest,” the Hightower Report said. “A 50% correction of the June 16 to July 9 break comes in at 122.32 and the market is struggling to push past this level. A jump in grain prices help trigger selling in the feeder cattle and that helped pull cattle off of the highs.”

 

Hog markets saw some correction Wednesday. “August hogs closed moderately lower on the day after the early rally to the highest level since June 21 failed to find new buying interest,” the Hightower Report said. “The market closed higher for three sessions in a row and this has helped correct the oversold condition.”

 

Hot, dry forecast pushes grain higher

 

Grain markets moved higher on Wednesday, in part due to a hotter, drier forecast. “The grains complex saw higher trade today with soybeans, corn, and wheat higher,” Patti Uhrich, with CHS Hedging, said. “Livestock futures were lower on the higher corn price. The energy complex was lower.”

 

“Soybeans ended higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “A hot and dry US west upper Midwest weather forecast for late next week may have triggered new buying… Talk of drier US upper Midwest weather could be offering support to a low volume and very volatile trade.”

 

Corn

 

“The corn market saw strength today with double-digit gains and average volume,” Patti Uhrich, with CHS Hedging, said. “Corn was higher and started to fill the gap left on July 6. The July contract expired today at 6.83. Ethanol production decreased 26,000 bpd to 1,041,000 bpd. Ethanol inventories held steady at 21.1 mln barrels.”

 

“Corn futures traded higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Talk of hot and dry upper US west Midwest weather late next week offset rains moving across parts of NE and IA. CU is back near the bottom of the July 6 gap. Need to trade near 5.88 to fill the gap. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 100-900 mt vs 371 last week.”

 

Soybeans

 

Fund buying and a hot, dry weather outlook pushed beans higher Wednesday. “The soybean market closed higher on fund buying and hotter forecasts,” Patti Uhrich, with CHS Hedging, said. “Beans were higher with the November contract filling the gap left on the charts after the Independence Day holiday and traded above the 50-day moving average.”

 

“Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 100-900 mt vs 182 last week,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Trade estimated US June NOPA soybean crush near 159.5 mln bu. vs 163.5 in May and 167.3 last year. Some feel crush may have slowed due to lower soymeal demand.”

 

Wheat

 

“Wheat followed corn and soybeans higher as the forecast looks hot and dry,” Patti Uhrich, with CHS Hedging, said. “September closes: Mpls at $8.72 ¾ (reaching a new contract high), up 11 cents, KC at $6.27 ¾, up 16, Chicago at $6.54 ¼, up 20 ½ cents. Estimated fund activity in wheat showed +10,000 contracts.”

 

“Lower US/Canada wheat crops supportive,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Canada wheat crop could drop to 21 mmt from USDA WOB 31.5. There is also talk that rain is delaying Europe wheat harvest and raising concern about quality. There is also talk that Russia wheat crop size is dropping due to hot/dry weather.”

 

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