The Corn market is at a Crossroads, Analyst Says

If the Crop Averages a Yield of 178 Bushels per Acre, Ending Stocks Reverse Higher


By Bryan Doherty, Successful Farming - 6/4/2021


Bulls are sharpening their horns while bears grit their teeth.


While this is very visual, it may encompass the two camps of thought that are developing as traders look toward this year’s crop and price potential. 


The bull rally that has been in place for over a year for soybeans and since August for corn does appear to have topped in May. Weather is the most important factor for crop production and, while a fast start to the planting season has occurred, what happens over the next 30 to 60 days will set the tone for either a continuation of a bull run for prices or a price slide, representing increasing supplies.


Let’s look at the forces pushing prices this year. Currently, at least on paper, the corn crop is in great shape. Planting at 95% complete is ahead of the five-year average of 87%. The first hurdle in any growing season is getting the crop in the ground. Emergence is 81% vs. the five-year average of 70%. This week’s crop ratings figure came in at 76% good-to-excellent, which is above last year’s 74%. All this data would suggest a strong start to the growing season and little reason for end users or speculators to be buyers...