[Mon]: There’s more talk that the China pig heard growth rate has been slowed by too many African swine fever outbreaks has helped to support, The Hightower Report said this morning… [Fri]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary: National: $112.49, +$1.39, IA/MN: $116.49, WCB: $116.43, East:?, Cutout $110.46, +$2.91 / Exports may need to increase in order to keep supply from backing into domestic market, according to Total Farm Marketing…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Mon 5/3/2021 8:59 AM
Lean hogs - Lean hog futures trading rose by triple digits on Friday. There will be expanded limits of $4.50 today, Brugler Marketing said this morning.
Technically, hog futures are vastly improved from a couple weeks ago. “The strong move in prices has June poised to pushed through the recent contract highs,” Total Farm Marketing said this morning.
There’s more talk that the China pig heard growth rate has been slowed by too many African swine fever outbreaks has helped to support, The Hightower Report said this morning.
Demand may push up beef cash price
Consumer demand for beef remains extremely strong and eventually packers may be needing to bid up the cash market. “Packer margins are extremely profitable and they will have the incentive to move as much beef as possible at the high level,” The Hightower Report said this morning.
Large slaughter beef numbers keep the leverage in the packers’ court as the market feels there is ample supply to meet the demand, Total Farm Marketing said this morning.
The pork market remains in a solid uptrend as traders see solid demand from China and a continued strong export market for US pork.
Brazil’s corn crop impacting prices
Grain calls are sharply higher to start the week and the month, said Steve Freed of ADM Investors. Corn limit has increased to 40 cents, soybean 100 cents, soyoil 350 point and soymeal $30. “Look for extreme choppy volatility to continue with U.S. export prices a premium to other origins, uncertainty over China and EU economic future and uncertain U.S. summer weather,” Freed said.
Portions of Iowa, southeastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska and southern Minnesota reported excessive heat during the weekend in the very same area that has been unusually dry in the past 30 days. “Crops and livestock were stressed by the heat and rapid soil moisture depletion resulted,” Total Farm Marketing said in its sunrise report today.
Corn is the most expensive feed grain in the world right now, partially based on the smaller Brazil crop, John Payne of Daniels Trading said this morning.
Fri 4/30/2021 4:47 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported:
National carcass base up $1.39 to $112.49/cwt.
National live price down $1.88 to $85.43.
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base at $116.49.
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $2.91 to $110.46 /cwt.
Exports may need to increase in order to keep supply from backing into domestic market, according to Total Farm Marketing.
Traders worry about weakening demand from China which slipped to the fourth largest buyer in the weekly export sales report, a disappointment for the bulls, according to The Hightower Report.
Hurdle for cattle futures
Weakening cash is posing a large hurdle for cattle futures as demand stays strong for boxed beef, according to Total Farm Marketing.
The macro market is feeling the pressure today from coronavirus concerns around the world and increasing inflation, according to Nick Paumen of CHS Hedging.
Ending week with a bang
Grain markets ended the week with a bang as Safras & Mercado updated their total corn crop to 104.1 MMT, down 8% from their previous estimate, according to Nick Paumen of CHS Hedging.
Weather issues are still key drivers of grain markets with a hot and dry forecast for Brazil and cold weather threatening France’s wheat crop, according to Total Farm Marketing.
A favorable weather forecast, with the U.S. Midwest looking to receive half to one and a half inches of rain in the next five days, has eased concerns about upcoming crops, according to The Hightower Report.
Talk that China will take all of U.S. unshipped open corn sales offered support and offset talk that U.S. prices were too high and Argentina corn was being exported to the U.S., according to Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services.
As Brazil faces extended hot, dry weather, its corn crop is expected to drop below 100 mmt.
Soybean traded higher on talk of higher U.S. basis and tight U.S. 2020/21 supplies, according to Steve freed of ADM Investor Services. This offset talk that U.S. soybean, soymeal and soyoil prices were too high and normal U.S. summer weather could weigh on prices.
Total Farm Marketing noted rumors of China cancellations of Brazilian soybeans.
MKN rallied on continued concern about dry weather across most of US north plains and Canada prairies, according to Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services.
Ukraine continues to expect a better than originally thought production from their wheat crop this year with the UGA putting their estimate at 27.7 MMT, according to Nick Paumen of CHS Hedging. Exports are expected to be up 3.5 MMT from last year as well.