Pig outlook: lean hog futures bulls hitting the accelerator again

US hog futures rally as supplies tighten and China reports a new outbreak of African swine fever.


by Jim Wyckoff, The Pig Site

30 April 2021


The pig trader's perspective


Lean hog futures prices rallied strongly this week. US pork packers this week did aggressive buying that sent average cash bids soaring to above $113.00, matching prices for this time in the PEDV year of 2014. Prices eventually rose above $130 in July 2014. Market weights have trended sideways since February but have turned lower in the last two weeks, another indicator of tightening supplies. Packer profit margins fell to a 16-week low this week. But after months of margins in the black, packers can likely withstand negative margins for a while. Pork cut-out futures are pointing to a top in June, but futures hint it may come next month as restaurant restocking will likely slow.


The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:


    June lean hog futures: $105.0 to $112.00 and with a higher bias

    July soybean meal futures: $410.00 to $433.60, and with a sideways

    July corn futures: $6.00 to $6.70, and a sideways bias


Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

US pork exports slide in latest week


USDA Thursday 29 April reported US pork net sales of 35,600 metric tonnes (MT) for 2021 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up 59% from the prior four-week average...


USDA US weekly pork retail report ...


China announces new ASF outbreak in Mongolia ...


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