[Thurs]: “If exports remain solid, the trend can continue,” The Hightower Report said, but if any other signals come through, a top may be put in place. “The U.S. may need extra pork exports in order to avoid an increase in domestic supply.” Technically, the picture looks “very friendly” in the hog market, Total Farm Marketing said… [Weds]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary: National $111.52, down $1.58, IA/MN $115.78, WCB $116.15; USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon was $2.47 lower… Analysts are watching trends in weekly average weights. “Weekly average weights for Iowa/Minnesota came in at 286.1 pounds, down from 287 last week and unchanged from a year ago,” the Hightower Report said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Thu 4/29/2021 8:42 AM
Lean hogs - “If exports remain solid, the trend can continue,” The Hightower Report said, but if any other signals come through, a top may be put in place. “The U.S. may need extra pork exports in order to avoid an increase in domestic supply.”
Technically, the picture looks “very friendly” in the hog market, Total Farm Marketing said. Expect the market to challenge the highs in the June contract, as deferred contracts are already challenging their highs.
Cattle outlook "bearish" as feed costs stay high
Technical action “remains bearish” in cattle, as they hit their lowest points since January 14, The Hightower Report said. While they say the market is technically oversold, the worries of short-term supply “due to the high price of corn” is limiting any possible gains in cattle.
New African Swine Fever cases are being reported in China, this time in Northern Mongolia. This marks the 10th report of an outbreak this year, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said.
Wed 4/28/2021 4:53 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base was down $1.58 to $111.52/cwt.
National live was up $3.02 to $86.23
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was $115.78
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon was $2.47 lower to $108.21/cwt.
Analysts are watching trends in weekly average weights. “Weekly average weights for Iowa/Minnesota came in at 286.1 pounds, down from 287 last week and unchanged from a year ago,” the Hightower Report said. “Pork cutout values at midsession came in at $109.78, down $0.81 on the day.”
“Hog futures have consolidated the past few sessions but broke out to the upside on Wednesday,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Some of the strength may be tied to weekly exports sales being announced on Thursday and seeing some strength in anticipation of the number. The cash market has stayed supportive, and the trend in cash stays firm overall.”
Hogs strong, cattle slip lower as day progresses
“June cattle traded higher on the day into the midsession but closed lower and sharply down from the early highs,” the Hightower Report said. “The market rallied early in the session with sharply lower grain prices, but the turn higher in the grain markets helped to trigger some selling in the livestock.”
“June hogs gap higher on the opening and closed sharply higher on the day,” the Hightower Report said. “The buying pushed the market up to the highest level since April 12 which was a contract high day. The market traded off of the highs of the day as grain prices recovered from early weakness.”
Heavy planting weighing on markets
"Expectations for strong planting progress in the days and weeks ahead may have pressured November soybeans today,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Yet, tight carryout and strong demand provides underlying support. The markets have accelerated upward, and it’s just not soybeans, it’s all row crops.”
Grain markets may have been correcting some are a strong run higher. “Another selloff day in the grains as the correction continues after the impressive run higher,” Nick Paumen, with CHS Hedging, said. “Most of the news remains static so we’re trading weather, planting progress, and if the funds want to sell or buy.”
“Another volatile day in the corn market with a weaker start to the day, higher trend until around mid-session, then a major selloff the after 1:00,” Nick Paumen, with CHS Hedging, said. “…Weather overall for the end of the week looks supportive for planters to roll across much of the cornbelt, so that added to the weakness.”
“The rally in corn this spring has been magnificent with cash leading the way,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Because cash remains strong, we will initially view this as a correction. Yet, what appears to be a conducive forecast for corn planting could suggest more than half of the crop could be in the ground by the end of the upcoming weekend.”
“One of the few glimpses of green on across the board today was May soybeans and soybean oil,” Nick Paumen, with CHS Hedging, said. “Ranges in the soybean futures were quite large again today with July at 54’0 cents and November at 33’0 cents, to name a few. Cash markets remain strong as the domestic crusher is calling for soybeans to move to them.”
“Grains markets were choppy and volatile,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Early losses linked to talk of increase US imports and US Fed keeping rates low. Talk of tight US 2020/21 supplies rallied May contracts before deliveries. Late selloff linked to favorable US weather and increasing US debt.”
“Double digit weakness in the majority of the months in all three wheat classes as the profit taking continues,” Nick Paumen, with CHS Hedging, said. “Eastern HRW areas are on deck to get some rains in the near term, but also seeing reports showing evidence of frost damage. The SRW crop continues to look strong which may add to the weakness in the Chi markets.”
“World prices are lower than US and could limit US exports,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Weekly US wheat exports are estimated near 0-300 mt vs 240 last week. New crop sales are est near 200-450 mt vs 373 last week. This weeks Egypt tender cancellation due to high prices offered resistance.”