In this file:

 

·         Pig outlook: hog market bulls keep foot on the gas

US hog futures continue to rise, while China's pork industry begins to see negative impacts from ineffective ASF vaccines.

 

·         U.S. Hog Market Looks Promising

… "With continued strong grocery store demand and further prospects for restaurant re-openings as more U.S. citizens are vaccinated against COVID-19, the market looks promising," Franken said...

 

 

Pig outlook: hog market bulls keep foot on the gas

US hog futures continue to rise, while China's pork industry begins to see negative impacts from ineffective ASF vaccines.

 

by Jim Wyckoff, The Pig Site

2 April 2021

 

The pig trader's perspective

 

The lean hog futures market continued to climb this week, but the cash hog market has now paused. Spot cash hog markets are beginning to weaken, putting some pressure on the futures’ premiums. However, losses in futures were limited as the pork cut-out value on Wednesday rose a solid $4.71 to $110.01 per hundredweight.

 

Futures’ premiums to the cash hog market suggest that US hog supplies are unlikely to rise above demand. Meanwhile, piglet and gilt prices there have moved to multi-month highs, an indication of possible additional herd liquidation.

 

More reports out of China regarding African swine fever’s ongoing impact on China’s hog herd and the resulting opportunity this presents for the US are bolstering export hopes as the US looks forward to reopening and a boost in restaurant demand.

 

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges

 

June lean hog futures--$102.00 to $107.00 and with a sideways-higher bias

 

May soybean meal futures--$410.00 to $433.20, and with a sideways bias

 

May corn futures--$5.60 to $5.85, and a sideways bias

 

News from the US pork industry

 

Pork exports remain strong ...

 

USDA’s February US cold storage report ...

 

Latest updates from Asia

 

China’s WH Group says 2020 hog processing tumbled 46% as ASF cut supplies ...

 

Analysis of South Korea's pork market shows demand remaining strong ...

 

Agriculture news from the European Union

 

European Commission changes rules on livestock feed ...

 

Meat industry news from South America

 

Argentina suspends 15 meat exporters for dodging industry regulations ...

 

more, including links

https://www.thepigsite.com/articles/pig-outlook-hog-market-bulls-keep-foot-on-the-gas

 

 

U.S. Hog Market Looks Promising

 

The Farmer's Exchange (IN)

April 2, 2021

 

The USDA's March Hogs and Pigs report places the March 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs at 74.8 million head, down about 3 percent from last quarter and 1.8 percent from last March, compared to pre-report estimates of .1 percent higher. The report estimates are mostly around or below the lower end of the range of pre-report expectations and represent the first March-over-March reduction since 2014, according to Jason Franken, agricultural economist at Western Illinois University and contributor to the University of Illinois farmdoc team.

 

"The market hog inventory is about 1.8 percent smaller than a year ago, and below the anticipated range. The breeding herd is 2.5 percent lower than a year ago and at the lower end of the pre-report estimate," Franken said.

 

Each class of market hog inventories is down compared to the same time last year. The heaviest two weight classes of 120-to-179-pounds and over-180-pounds are both 2.5 percent lower than last March and also 3 percent and 1.3 percent lower than pre-report expectations, respectively, while the 50-to-119-pound class and under-50-pound class are 1.6 percent and 1.9 percent lower than expected.

 

"Hence, it appears that market-ready supply especially is smaller than anticipated. Overall, the number of hogs weighing less than 180 pounds is nearly 1.6 percent smaller than a year ago, and these will be the market hogs arriving at processing plants from April to August 2021," Franken explains.

 

The decline in lighter-weight hogs partly reflects that the December-February pig crop is 1.4 percent smaller than last year with around 1 percent fewer sows farrowed. This is bullish news compared to expectations of .7 percent and .5 percent higher, respectively, with an average of 10.04 pigs saved per litter; that is about .5 percent lower than the 11 pigs per litter for the same period last year, Franken states.

 

"On a monthly basis, pigs saved per litter has often been lower than the prior year for a while now, particularly in December and January, contributing to tighter supplies," he said. "Meanwhile, spring and summer farrowing intentions are down 2.5 percent and 4.2 percent from actual farrowings last year compared to expectations of .8 percent lower for each. These numbers should similarly imply somewhat smaller slaughter numbers in subsequent periods."

 

There still appears to be plenty of room in cold storage, Franken notes. According to the USDA cold storage report, cold stocks of pork on Feb. 28 are up 7 percent from the previous month but down 24 percent from a year ago. Poultry stocks are down 3 percent from the prior month and 14 percent from a year ago, while beef is down 2 percent from the prior month, but up 3 percent from last year.

 

The USDA has revised its forecast of U.S. per capita pork consumption in 2020 back up to 52 pounds per person from its prior estimate of 51.9, with the number reaching 52.5 pounds per person in 2021. Prior to COVID-19, U.S. per capita pork consumption reached 52.4 pounds in 2019, the highest it has been since it was 54.2 pounds in 1981.

 

"With continued strong grocery store demand and further prospects for restaurant re-openings as more U.S. citizens are vaccinated against COVID-19, the market looks promising," Franken said...

 

more

http://www.farmers-exchange.net/detailPage.aspx?articleID=20491