In this file:
· Soybeans, corn close mostly trading limit higher
· Farmer skeptical of USDA’s Prospective Plantings report
· USDA Prospective Plantings Report Bullish for Corn and Beans
Soybeans, corn close mostly trading limit higher
By John Perkins, Brownfield
March 31, 2021
Soybeans were sharply higher on commercial and technical buying, with most contracts closing limit up, $.70 per bushel higher. The USDA’s acreage estimate was up on the year, but below expectations at 87.6 million acres, and March 1st stocks were the lowest in five years at 1.56 billion bushels. The trade is also watching harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil, but any bearishness attached to that activity was on the back burner and there are concerns about a drier weather pattern lowering yields for some of the late planted crops. Brazilian export group ANEC sees March soybean exports at around 15.5 million tons, with Brazilian prices at a discount to the U.S. Export demand from China has slowed down as Brazil’s harvest has moved forward and their prices have moved lower. Soybean meal and oil were sharply higher, including a limit up move for May meal, on the fundamental implications of a tighter soybean supply. The USDA’s crush numbers for February are out Thursday at 3 Eastern/2 Central.
Corn was sharply higher on commercial and technical buying, with most months rising the $.25 daily trading limit. The USDA also showed a smaller than anticipated acreage increase for corn at just over 91.1 million acres, with the tightest March 1st supply in six years at a little more than 7.7 billion bushels. Early planting delays are probable in parts of the Midwest and Plains, with the USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition reports resuming Monday, April 5th. Corn is also watching conditions in South America...
Farmer skeptical of USDA’s Prospective Plantings report
By Will Robinson, Brownfield
March 31, 2021
A Missouri farmer isn’t putting too much stock into the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report showing lower than expected acreage for corn and soybeans.
Richard Oswald tells Brownfield Wednesday’s bullish report won’t affect the market long-term.
“It doesn’t matter what an estimate is, it only matters what we [farmers] actually did…,” he said “We’ll probably, at some point here before too long, see a price correction in soybeans and corn both just because it’s still an unknown fact [of] what those planted acres are going to be and they can change in a day.”
The Atchison County farmer says he’s skeptical about the accuracy of USDA’s acreage estimates across the board.
“Where’d those millions of acres go,” Oswald said...
more, including audio [6:38 min.]
USDA Prospective Plantings Report Bullish for Corn and Beans
Radio 570 WNAX (SD)
Mar 31, 2021
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March 1 Prospective Plantings Report was surprisingly bullish for corn and soybeans. United States farmers indicated they only intend to increase corn acres 1% from 2020 to an estimated 91.1 million acres (ma). That is only 325,000 acres higher than last year and was around 2.0 ma below the average trade guess.
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2021 totaled 7.70 billion bushels (bb), down 3 % from March 1, 2020 or 251 million bushels. This was in line with expectations.
With the big corn acreage surprise, market analyst John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing is optimistic about the upside in corn. “I think we need to be above $6.00 on old crop corn and above $5.00 on new crop.”
Soybean planted area for 2021 was also a bullish surprise, estimated at 87.6 million acres, up 5% from last year. However, this is nearly 2.4 ma below the average trade guess of 89.99 ma. It’s also below the estimate USDA released at the February Ag Outlook Forum. Heinberg says, “USDA’s 90-million-acre figure put soybean ending stocks right at 145 mb, so with the nearly 2.5 ma drop that could put new crop carryout down to as low as 100 mb which is below pipeline supplies.” This leaves no room for error during the upcoming growing season...