[Thurs]: According to a Reuters report, a wave of African Swine Flu has wiped out 20% of the northern region’s breeding herd in China, CHS Hedging said. “This raises more fears regarding the impact of losses going forward in other regions of the country”… [Weds]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary / National carcass base down 18 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon up $2.08… June hogs made contract highs and packers may hold back now that cutout gains have slowed, according to Total Farm Marketing.
Farm Commodity/Iowa Farmer Today
Thu 4/1/2021 8:53 AM
Lean hogs - Wednesday’s mixed futures trade came as the market “saw some retreat from the recent bull spreading supporting the front-end futures,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Despite the choppy trade, the fundamentals stay supportive.”
Markets “bounced well up from the lows” yesterday, The Hightower Report said despite being extremely overbought. Yesterday’s weakness may have been a bout of profit taking, but cutout values continue to be strong. Longer term, the cash fundamentals “seem okay,” they said, “but the continued weakness in China pig prices would suggest that China imports from the U.S. may eventually begin to decline.”
ASF continuing to hit China herd
According to a Reuters report, a wave of African Swine Flu has wiped out 20% of the northern region’s breeding herd in China, CHS Hedging said. “This raises more fears regarding the impact of losses going forward in other regions of the country.”
Cattle demand is “extremely bullish” as consumers see a surge in spendable income with the stimulus payments, The Hightower Report said. “In addition, the beef pipeline is expanding as more and more restaurants, food service companies and entertainment businesses reopen.”
Corn, soybeans continue gains overnight
Grain markets “didn’t have near the excitement as yesterday,” CHS Hedging said, but still managed to find support in the overnight trade. Much of that excitement came from the USAD acreage report, which estimated total principal acres at 316.2 mln acres, 6.1 mln higher than last year. However that mark was lower than expected, and 3.1 mln acres less than in 2019.
The U.S. dollar continues to be strong, an indicator the U.S. economy is improving, CHS Hedging said.
Today will be a normal trading day, but markets will be closed Friday for the Easter holiday, reopening Sunday night into Monday.
Wed 3/31/2021 4:25 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base down 18 cents at $95.65/cwt.
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was $98.56.
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon up $2.08 at $108.97.
June hogs made contract highs and packers may hold back now that cutout gains have slowed, according to Total Farm Marketing.
The market remains extremely overbought technically and the setback in pork values yesterday may have been enough to trigger some profit-taking, according to The Hightower Report.
Feeders hit hard as livestock slides
April cattle closed near unchanged while June cattle were moderately higher but June hogs closed moderately lower on the day, according to The Hightower Report.
Cattle futures hold large premiums to cash, according to Total Farm Marketing.
Grains surge on USDA report
Today’s USDA acreage estimates surprised the trade and the result was certainly bullish, according to Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting. USDA estimated corn acres for this year at 91.1 million acres and soybeans at 87.6 million acres, both well below trade estimates. Wheat came in at 46.4 million acres.
Trade was very surprised by USDA’s acreage estimates, according to Karl Setzer of Agrivisor. The figure for soybeans is garnering the most attention because it indicates that even if the U.S. has a trendline yield of 50.8 bu. Per acre it would likely still lead to a drop in reserves.
Corn rallied with the market trading up the limit for most of the session following the USDA report, according to CHS Hedging.
The trade was surprised by the USDA report and now it will try to buy acres, according to Steve Freed at ADM Investor Services.
Soybean futures shot higher today after the surprisingly strong USDA report and prices settled at limit up, meaning that tomorrow’s session will have extended limits, according to CHS Hedging.
The USDA report was extremely bullish and May soybeans closed up the 70-cent limit, according to The Hightower Report.
Wheat futures traded higher today as they took strength from the corn and soybean markets, according to CHS Hedging.
Ukraine is becoming a player in the world market again. Current Ukraine grain sales trail last year by 23 percent, thanks to a drought, according to Karl Setzer of Agrivisor. Production is expected to rebound this year.