[Mon]: On any sign of weakness in the pork market, futures look vulnerable to increased selling with April hogs trying to hold a strong premium to the cash, according to The Hightower Report… China’s agriculture minister reported that hog inventories were expected to return to the 2017 levels by June of this year, said Michaela White of CHS Hedging… [Fri]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary / National carcass base up $1.03… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.64… the impressive Chinese exports should continue to bolster demand long term. The hog market “is still overbought,” Total Farm Marketing said and is vulnerable to selling if the pork values continue to turn lower…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Mon 2/22/2021 8:14 AM
Lean Hogs - On any sign of weakness in the pork market, futures look vulnerable to increased selling with April hogs trying to hold a strong premium to the cash, according to The Hightower Report. June hogs tested the contract highs and closed lower. Aggressive traders can sell, looking for a pullback to support at 90.82 and 90.05. April support is back at 82.72.
Lean hog calls are mixed to maybe a little higher today based on cash fundamentals, said Matthew Strelow of Total Farm Marketing. After mild topping signals last week including April losing 70 cents to a close below 85.20 at 84.50 while posting a bearish weekly reversal, and June & July advancing around 45 cents, prices may chop around to begin the week.
Slaughter to increase as weather improves
The worst of the winter weather should be in the rearview, so the slaughter pace should begin to pick up this week, said Matthew Strelow of Total Farm Marketing.
China’s agriculture minister reported that hog inventories were expected to return to the 2017 levels by June of this year, said Michaela White of CHS Hedging.
China to focus on increased yields
A Chinese state-run news agency reported that China’s “No. 1 document” will focus on creating greater food security for the country, and also called for all provinces to improve grain yields, said Michaela White of CHS Hedging.
Argentina will be very warm to hot and experience net drying conditions in many areas during the coming 10 days after a few early week thunderstorms, said Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services. Brazil’s bottom line is mostly good for southern Brazil with infrequent rainfall occurring in the next ten days to support the maturation and harvest of soybeans as well as the planting of Safrinha crops. Northern Brazil will continue fighting a wetter bias that will result in slow soybean harvest and Safrinha planting rates and could raise a little crop quality issue in a few areas.
Fri 2/19/2021 4:33 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base up $1.03 to $69.58/cwt.
National live had no comparison at $54.60
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was reported at $71.98
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.64 to $90.81/cwt.
The cold weather “temporarily topped the market out,” William Moore of Price Futures Group said. However, that is inducing some lower short-term demand “so now the market is reacting to that!” He did add that the impressive Chinese exports should continue to bolster demand long term.
The hog market “is still overbought,” Total Farm Marketing said and is vulnerable to selling if the pork values continue to turn lower.
Cattle on feed bearish for markets
Despite higher closes, today’s cattle session traded within Thursday’s range which indicates some short covering, The Hightower Report said.
Today’s cattle on feed report “was a bit negative,” Ami Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Placements were marked at 103%, above expectations, and marketings were below expectations at 94%.
Lean hogs saw some initial strength today, also sparked by some short covering, The Hightower Report said. However, the commodity closed lower, as exports for the week were lower than last week at 33,279 tonnes. That is the lowest mark since early January, they noted.
Profit-takers emerge to close week
Profit taking hit the markets to end the week, as corn and beans were pilfered throughout the day. Soybeans were able to withstand some pressure for a higher close, however, Ami Heesch of CHS Hedging said.
Energy markets are weaker as markets start to open up after the winter storm that blew through the south, Heesch said, noting that Wall Street was quiet today.
Much of the attention of traders will move to the May contract for corn, as March options expire, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. He said $5.52-$5.56 is the pocket to watch, as failure to reach those levels may bring some liquidation.
“March Option expiration and slow liquidation of large open interest may have weighed on nearby futures,” ADM Investor Services said. “There was talk of Managed funds buying corn and soybeans due to concern over South America weather.”
Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said much of the trade is focused on money flow and South America, which is behind pace in their harvest. “Right now, we are range bound, but if we get out on either side of support or resistance, there’s 40 cents to go.”
Despite near-record estimations for yield and acres in the Ag Forum this week, the numbers were lower than expected for soybeans which helped keep support in the market, ADM Investor Services said. “Some feel U.S. 2020/21 carryout could be lower than 120. This puts a lot of pressure on a normal U.S. 2021 crop.”
“A bout of profit-taking was noted in Chicago and KC from recent strength and easing concerns of crop damage to the winter wheat,” Ami Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “Temperatures have improved this week and are expected to be significantly warmer over the weekend and next week.”
Despite a drop today, wheat stil saw gains for the week and is seeing support from the Ag Forum yesterday, William Moore with Price Futures Group said. He noted that wheat carryout may drop from 836 mln bushels to 698 mln bushels.