[Fri]: The lean hog index gained an additional 1.02 to 76.53, its highest levels since October… Weekly export sales report may help set the tone for today, as the hog export market has been very supportive of prices on good demand, said Matthew Strelow of Total Farm Marketing… [Thurs]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary / National carcass base up $1.03… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.64… “The market is finding some support from the slower slaughter pace which has helped boost pork values,” The Hightower Report said. “The sharp break off of Friday’s highs may have attracted some buying support”…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 2/19/2021 8:38 AM
Lean Hogs - Lean hog futures are called steady to higher ahead of weekly export data and on the heels of yesterday’s price recovery off of early session lows, said Matthew Strelow of Total Farm Marketing. The lean hog index gained an additional 1.02 to 76.53, its highest levels since October.
Hog demand supportive globally
Weekly export sales report may help set the tone for today, as the hog export market has been very supportive of prices on good demand, said Matthew Strelow of Total Farm Marketing. The market will continue to watch the Chinese demand as well as the activity of other traditional buyers. Farther out, deferred contracts are maintaining their overall strength on the strong demand prospects and the idea of tighter hog supplies into the second half of 2021.
South American weather affects may come into play soon
Forecasts into early March for South America remain consistent with too much rain in northern Brazil which continues to slow harvest and diminish bean condition while it is mostly dry for southern Brazil and all of Argentina, said Jody Lawrence of Strategic Trading Advisors. These forecasts will start to become much more important next week.
USDA pegs this year’s corn area at 92 million acres and beans coming in at 90 million acres. “The two-crop total is a little disappointing given the expected farm revenues this year,” said Jacob Christy of The Andersons. “But this is a very preliminary, non-farmer survey-based approach, so trade is taking the numbers with a grain of salt.”
Global sales of potash fertilizer look to hit record highs this year, helped by a spike in crop prices, but North American producers are keeping a lid on supplies, said Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services. Canada’s Nutrien Ltd and U.S.-based Mosaic Co have benefited as corn, soybean and canola prices climbed to multi-year highs, helped by strong Chinese demand.
Thu 2/18/2021 4:51 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base up $1.03 to $69.58/cwt.
National live had no comparison, priced at $54.60
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was priced at $71.98
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.64 to $90.81/cwt.
Hogs saw a reversal from the overbought condition of the market today, Total Farm Marketing said. Estimated slaughter was pegged at 478,000 head.
“The market is finding some support from the slower slaughter pace which has helped boost pork values,” The Hightower Report said. “The sharp break off of Friday’s highs may have attracted some buying support.”
Cattle markets appear vulnerable to pullback
The high premium in cattle and an overbought condition makes the market vulnerable at the moment, The Hightower Report said. “Plant closures are temporary, but with the big premium of futures to the cash market, any weakness in the cash could spark increased selling short-term.”
Hogs saw two sided trade, leading to unchanged markets for the most part, The Hightower Report said. “The market recovered after an initial break which pushed the market down as much as $1.32 on the session,” they noted.
Acreage numbers pressure corn, soybeans
Expectations for record plantings this year put pressure on the grain markets, Ami Heesch of CHS Hedging said.
There was a “lack of Chinese buying interest in U.S. goods” in their first day back on the markets, she said which added to pressure.
The weak U.S. dollar was a point of support which limited losses in corn and soybeans while sparking additional gains in wheat.
Today’s Ag Outlook forum estimated planted acres for corn at 92 mln.
Prices were on the defensive today after the acreage numbers were announced along with South American harvest continuing along. “The South American harvest is moving along despite adverse weather conditions,” CHS Hedging said.
Ethanol production for last week is down 12.4% from the same week last year, Total Farm Marketing said, helping weigh on markets today. “Argentina weather will continue to dry down over the next 10 days,” they said.
The Ag Outlook forum estimated planted acres for soybeans at 90 mln.
There are rumors of Chinese buyers potentially canceling some unshipped U.S. soybean sales, ADM Investor Services said. “Talk of slower U.S. soybean export pace offered resistance.”
After today’s news from the USDA outlook forum, there is still more expected tomorrow, Total Farm Marketing said. Expect any news to help give some direction to the soybean market on Friday, they said.
The Ag Outlook forum estimated wheat planted acres for the 2021/22 year at 45.0 mln.
There were ideas today of the winter storm doing damage to the U.S. wheat crop, which supported the market, ADM Investor Services said. As weather warms and snow melts, the market will be able to see if there is any more damage from the frigid temperatures.
“The USDA Outlook Forum did little to provide direction as their estimate came in lower than the average trade estimate,” CHS Hedging said. “It stays at fairly low acres from price advantages from corn and oilseed crops.”