In this file:
· January WASDE Holds Bullish Surprises
· USDA Tightens the U.S. Corn, Soybean Stockpiles
January WASDE Holds Bullish Surprises
Radio 570 WNAX (SD)
Jan 12, 2021
The January Crop Production, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), Quarterly Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports, held several bullish surprises for the market.
The biggest was a cut in the national average corn yield by 3.8 bushels per acre (bpa) to 172 bpa. That resulted in a 324 million bushel (mb) drop in production to 14.182 billion bushels (bb). USDA did lower usage to offset some of the lower production figure, with a 100 mb drop in exports, 100 mb cut in corn for ethanol and 50 mb drop in feed and residual use. So, ending stocks were lowered just 150 mb to 1.552 bb. However, Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net, says that puts the stocks to use ratio at 10.6%, which warrants corn prices above $5. Quarterly stocks were also estimated at 11.64 bb, which was nearly 630 mb below the average trade guess, but nearly even with a year ago.
Corn production in Argentina was lowered 1.5 million metric tons (mmt) to 47.5 mmt and Brazilian production dropped just 1 mmt to 109 mmt. McCormick says production needs to be lowered more than that in the future with the dryness concerns in Argentina. World stocks were lowered by 5.2 mmt to 283.8.
The bulls were also fed in the soybean market with a .5 bpa drop in national yield to 50.2 bpa, which lowered production by 35 million bushels. Most of that drop came in Minnesota, Iowa and Kansas. Ending stocks were also lowered by 35 mb to 140 mb with a 5 mb increase in crush and 30 mb hike in exports, offset by a 20 mb increase in imports. McCormick says that puts the stocks to use ratio down around 3% and warrants soybean prices in the $14 to $15 range. He also thinks the market is already trading around a 100 mb stocks figure. “However, I don’t think USDA will lower their forecast down to that level until the May report,” he states. Quarterly stocks were also down from a year ago by 319 mb at 2.93 bb.
South American production was also eyed by the trade and Argentina production was lowered...
USDA Tightens the U.S. Corn, Soybean Stockpiles
The Corn Market Locked Limit Up.
By Mike McGinnis, Successful Farming
Agriculture.com - 1/12/2021
The USDA dropped the U.S. corn, soybean ending stocks Tuesday.
As a result, the CME Group’s corn market hit its daily limit up at 25¢, soybeans up 26¢ per bushel.
2020/2021 U.S. ENDING STOCKS
For corn, the USDA pegged the U.S. old-crop ending stocks at 1.55 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 1.59 billion bushels and the USDA’s December estimate of 1.70 billion.
For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were dropped from 175 million bushels in December to 140 million bushels. The trade expected the USDA to print 139 million bushels today.
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 836 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 859 million and the USDA’s previous estimate of 862 million.
U.S. QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS
For corn, the USDA sees stocks, as of Dec.1 at 11.3 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 11.9 billion.
For soybeans, the USDA pegged Dec. 1 stocks at 2.93 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 2.982 billion.
For wheat, Dec. 1 stocks are pegged at 1.67 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 1.695 billion.
U.S. 2020/21 CROP PRODUCTION ...
U.S. WINTER WHEAT PLANTINGS ...
2020/2021 WORLD ENDING STOCKS ...
TRADE RESPONSE ...