[Mon]: February hogs closed lower for the fourth session in a row on Friday. The market experienced pressure even with the strength in the cash and pork product markets. The market remains overbought and vulnerable… [Fri]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary / National carcass base down 29 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up $1.71… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.18… The Hightower Reports notes the market experienced pressure even with the strength seen in cash and pork product markets in the past 24 hours, and is overbought and vulnerable to a pullback…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Mon 1/11/2021 8:36 AM
Lean Hogs - February hogs closed lower for the fourth session in a row on Friday. The market experienced pressure even with the strength in the cash and pork product markets. The market remains overbought and vulnerable to a pullback but that probably is with the February contract with the premium to the cash, according to The Hightower Report.
February lean hog futures finished the week down $1.45 while June lean hog futures finished the week up $0.80, Allendale said. Wholesale pork has been supportive with gains of $2.42 (11% over last year).
Cattlemen eye grain markets
Some cattle operators are looking to the grain markets each day before the livestock markets, according to The Cattle Report. Feed costs is on everyone's mind. Winter is a time when many operations require supplemental feed for the cattle and those rations are running one third higher than last year. Farmers are moving quickly to take advantage of multi-year highs for corn and grain elevators have lower basis bids for fall crops.
February live cattle futures settled last week 0.55 lower while the deferred months finished slightly higher. Cash cattle trade remained at $112, Allendale reported.
Traders anticipate USDA report
Grain markets remained near their highs overnight as trade prepares for a surge of USDA information on this month’s WASDE report, Allendale said. Trade will continue to watch open interest, South American weather and crop updates and 2021 U.S. acreage updates.
The Supreme Court will review a ruling regarding small refinery waivers in regard to biofuel, said Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain.
Last year a circuit court ruled that the EPA could only grant the small refineries exemptions to facilities that had only received them every year since 2010. That was considered a big win for ethanol. Now we’re going back to a review of this.
Safras stated 57.7% of Brazil’s 2021 soybean crop is sold by farmers (38.6% average, 43.1% last year). Conab will release the latest Brazil corn and soybean production forecasts early tomorrow morning as well.
Fri 1/8/2021 5:05 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base down 29 cents to $54.94/cwt.
National live prices was not reported due to confidentiality.
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up $1.71 to $53.55.
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.18 to $81.00/cwt.
The Hightower Reports notes the market experienced pressure even with the strength seen in cash and pork product markets in the past 24 hours, and is overbought and vulnerable to a pullback.
More stimulus expected to be on the way
President-elect Joe Biden is calling for more economic stimulus and plans to have a proposal for billions of dollars in aid to city and state governments, as well stimulus checks for qualifying Americans next week before he takes office on Jan. 20, said CHS Hedging.
ADM Investor Services says the start of index funds rebalancing from big gainers to big losers may explain today’s losses in metals and bonds, and the stronger dollar.
Soy markets trade higher
Soybeans, soymeal and corn traded higher, while soyoil and wheat traded lower. US stocks were lower. Crude was higher and the US Dollar was higher, but gold and copper were lower, according to ADM Investor Services.
The price of November soybeans divided by the price of December corn equals a ratio of 2.64, and historically 2.45 or higher tends to pull corn acres to soybeans, suggesting a fight for acres if the corn market demands more inventory, said Total Farm Marketing.
Corn traded mixed today, breaking $5 briefly then falling back, as Argentia plans to reevalutate plan to stop corn exports until March, said CHS Hedging.
Some traders feel China’s 2020 corn crop was lower than USDA estimate and that they will buy as much as 20 mmt US corn in 2020/21 and 40 mmt in 2021/22, said Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services.
The soybean market is focused on next week’s WASDE report. The USDA reported a flash sale this morning of 204,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year, according to CHS Hedging.
Talk of China buying U.S. cargoes plus a drier forecast for Argentina helped support the market, said The Hghtower Report.
The wheat markets were mixed today, with winter wheat trading lower as estimates expect that the USDA could show higher winter wheat acres seeded on next week’s report, accoerding to CHS Hedging. Another factor: the Southern Plains could receive some precipitation.
March wheat closed lower on the session today, hitting the lowest level since last Friday.
Ending the week on that lower close after posting a six-year high is considered a key reversal and a bearish development, said The Hightower Report.