[Weds]: Lean hog calls are mixed. Yesterday’s market was mostly higher, except for weakness in February, according to Stewart-Peterson. Front-month futures are challenging the high established in October. Deferred contracts pushed to new contract highs while exhibiting strength… [Tues]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary / National carcass base up $4.25… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down $1.02… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $0.81… Almost all commodity markets found support from the sharp break on the U.S. dollar and a strong up day for energy prices, said the Hightower Report…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Wed 1/6/2021 8:37 AM
Lean Hogs - Pork carcasses were slightly lower at the close, finishing .14 lower to 77.63, but carcasses have been trending higher the past few sessions, according to Stewart-Peterson.
USDA estimated the federally inspected hog slaughter at 489,000 head for Tuesday, said Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing. WTD slaughter is estimated at 979,000 head, down from 994,000 the same week last year.
Future rosy for meat sales
Two trending factors contained hope for improvement, according to The Cattle Report. Another record for beef exports was set in 2020 at 14% of all beef sales. This occurred despite an extended period during plant shutdowns and slowdowns that beef was too high to ship for export. Periods at the end of the year saw our exports reach 25% of our beef production. The second factor will be a restoration in 2021 of full restaurant capacities as vaccinations hit arms of many citizens.
Lean hog calls are mixed. Yesterday’s market was mostly higher, except for weakness in February, according to Stewart-Peterson. Front-month futures are challenging the high established in October. Deferred contracts pushed to new contract highs while exhibiting strength.
Ag issues remain for 2021
Fundamentally, nothing has changed since we flipped the calendar to 2021, said Jacob Christy of The Andersons. “The world is still worried about food inflation; there remains concerns about South American production; and the U.S. dollar continues to slip to new lows,” he said.
Long-range Brazil and Argentina weather forecast calls for below-normal rains, said Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services. GFS model has rains over next few weeks although scattered and less than average.
Tue 1/5/2021 4:57 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base up $4.25 to $55.10/cwt.
National live was $41.12
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down $1.02 to $49.27
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $0.81 to $77.77/cwt.
February hogs opened steady on the day and the market fell far enough to fill the gap from yesterday, before closing slightly lower. The huge premium of February to the cash market helped spark some selling, said The Hightower Report.
Livestock finds support from USD
Almost all commodity markets found support from the sharp break on the U.S. dollar and a strong up day for energy prices, said the Hightower Report.
After the cattle complex closed lower yesterday, lean hogs were the lone bull today, said Scott Shellady of CME Group. The lean hog market is hanging in there despite skyrocketing price of inputs and a crazy start to the year.
Cattle futures reversed Monday’s losses, according to Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services.
Grains shoot higher Tuesday
Growing conditions in Brazil have improved with ample rains forecast over the next seven days, while close to home, drought continues to expand across the western half of the U.S. southern Plains, and the U.S. dollar continues to weaken, according to Total Farm Marketing.
Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn and wheat traded higher and new buying pushed futures higher, said Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services. Late profit taking erased some of the day’s gains. U.S. stocks and crude went higher.
Brazil & China corn prices keep U.S. corn the cheapest globally available as corn futures surged 14% in second half of December, a move not seen in over 30 years, according to Total Farm Marketing.
Continued dry weather concerns in Argentina, a weaker dollar, and strength in soybeans and wheat were contributors to corn prices reaching their highest levels since summer 2019, said Stewart-Peterson. With the bean market decisively closing above the 13.00, it seems only logical to expect corn prices to move over 5.00.
U.S. farmers have sold as much as 90-95% of their 2020 crop, according to Total Farm Marketing. Next week, the USDA “could” lower carryout as low as 100 mb.
Trade looks for U.S. final 2020 soybean crop near 4,150 versus USDA 4,170, said ASD Investor Service’s Steve Freed. Dec 1 US soybean stocks could be near 2,800 mil bu vs 3,252 last year.
U.S. hard red winter wheat is becoming more competitive and the nation’s grains and rising Black Sea and European wheat values are dragging wheat higher, according to Total Farm Marketing.
ADM Investor Services’ Steve Freed cited concern about U.S. and Russia 2020 crops. Russia and EU old crop exports pace is also helping prices.