[Tues]: China's pig heard in October is up 26.9% from year ago and the sow heard is up 31.5%. “Traders see smaller import demand from China in 2021 as a reason for the weakness in 2021 contracts,” The Hightower Report said this morning… [Mon]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary / National carcass base was 45 cents lower… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base price was not reported… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up $1.01… Analysts are watching trends in China’s pig herd as that country rebuilds its numbers following African Swine Fever issues. “China's pig heard in October is up 26.9% from year ago and the sow heard is up 31.5%,” the Hightower Report said. “Pork cutout values at midsession came in at $82.03, up $1.89 on the day”…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Tue 11/17/2020 9:01 AM

 

Lean hogs - February hogs appear to have put in a major top in October and the market broke out to the downside under the November 2 low yesterday. “This is a bearish technical development,” The Hightower Report said this morning.

 

The USDA pork cutout, released after the close yesterday, came in at $80.34, up $1.65 from Friday but down from $84.82 the previous week, The Hightower Report said this morning.

 

More demand for beef, less for pork

 

December cattle closed slightly higher on the session yesterday and recovered part of Friday's sharp losses. “The market is finding some support from bullish outside market forces as traders see better demand ahead,” The Hightower Report said this morning.

 

China's pig heard in October is up 26.9% from year ago and the sow heard is up 31.5%. “Traders see smaller import demand from China in 2021 as a reason for the weakness in 2021 contracts,” The Hightower Report said this morning.

 

Demand/carryover still driving prices

 

Steve Freed of ADM Investor services said he is expecting a higher trend in grain markets today based on carryover and demand.

 

However, the cash markets look weaker with bearish news including President Elect Biden’s chief of staff yesterday, saying that a 4-6 week lockdown could go a long way to slowing the spread of COVID. This put pressure on oil and ethanol prices, Jacob Christy of The Andersons, said this morning.

 

Meanwhile, soybean futures are up 17 cents overnight based on the South America model of dry weather. “So a buying spree is starting,” said John Payne of Daniels Trading. He said $12 highs looks to be the next target.

 

Mon 11/16/2020 4:27 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base was 45 cents lower to $59.27/cwt.

National live price was not reported due to confidentiality

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base price was not reported due to confidentiality

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up $1.01 to $81.15/cwt.

 

Analysts are watching trends in China’s pig herd as that country rebuilds its numbers following African Swine Fever issues. “China's pig heard in October is up 26.9% from year ago and the sow heard is up 31.5%,” the Hightower Report said. “Pork cutout values at midsession came in at $82.03, up $1.89 on the day.”

 

From the technical perspective, hogs markets were seeing somewhat mixed signals. “Daily momentum studies are on the rise from low levels and should accelerate a move higher on a push through the 1st swing resistance,” the Hightower Report said. “The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average.”

 

Outside markets supporting cattle

 

“December cattle closed slightly higher on the day and recovered part of Friday's sharp losses,” the Hightower Report said. “The market is finding some support from bullish outside market forces as traders see better demand ahead. Cash markets were $3.00 higher on the week last week. Boxed beef cutout values at midsession came in at $225.85, down $0.13 on the day.”

 

Hogs also moved slightly higher on Monday on a fairly quiet day. “December hogs closed slightly higher on the day with an inside trading session,” the Hightower Report said. “It was quiet trade. February hogs pushed sharply lower on the session and experienced the lowest close since September 8.”

 

Markets continue to rise

 

Grain markets moved higher Monday on a number of sources of support. “Good day in the grain markets form strong demand, tightening stocks, spillover strength in outside markets,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Energy and Equity markets drew strength from another promising vaccine for COVID-19 on the horizon.”

 

Analysts are watching soybean export trends. “Talk of lower and late South America crops could increase US final exports to near 2,350 mln bu.,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “This could drop US carryout below 100. There was talk that China total US soybean export commit is near 34 mmt versus goal of 38.”

 

Corn

 

“Corn futures traded higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Talk of higher demand for US corn exports and uncertain Ukraine and Argentina weather offered support. Talk of lower US corn carryout now has some feeling CZ21 also needs to trade higher to help increase US 2021 corn acres.”

 

“The corn market traded higher on decent demand, hopes there will be more Chinese corn purchases from the US at the expense of the shortfall in Ukraine’s corn crop,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Prices drew additional support form spillover strength in the energy and equity markets. Gains were limited from improving conditions in Brazil and Argentina.”

 

Soybeans

 

Exports and record soybean crush figures provided support for soybean markets Monday. “Soybean prices traded higher on strong exports and a record soybean crush number for October,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Strength in the energy and equity markets added support. Prices continue to be supported form tightening stocks.”

 

“Soybean traded higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. "Talk of increased China demand for US soybeans, record US NOPA October soybean crush and concern about South America weather offered support. Lack of any new US sales announced to China today offered resistance.”

 

Wheat

 

“Wheat futures traded both sides of Friday’s close but managed to trade higher on the close,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Wheat futures lack the big buyer of US wheat like China buying US soybeans and corn. Wheat is also a weather market. Talk of increase chances for rains in Russia offered resistance early.”

 

“The wheat market was mostly higher on spillover strength in the row crops and renewed concerns of dryness in the US Southern Plains,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Prices drew additional support form a weaker US$. Mpls lagged KC and Chicago and the Dec is once again trading at a 4-cent discount to KC Dec.”

 

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