[Mon]: Ideas that the short-term production could exceed demand helped to pressure the market in spite of very strong weekly export sales, according to The Hightower Report… [Fri]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary / National carcass base was 33 cents lower… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was 52 cents higher… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were down $2.94… Analysts say it is good to see China start making purchases for 2021 as well. “It is important to see the Chinese sales start moving into 2021,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Despite those numbers, hog futures saw selling pressure that weighed across the livestock sector and technical weakness on the move lower”…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Mon 11/16/2020 8:30 AM

 

Lean Hogs - Ideas that the short-term production could exceed demand helped to pressure the market in spite of very strong weekly export sales, according to The Hightower Report.

 

CME’s pork cutout futures were down triple digits, with $1.45 to $1.52 losses, said Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $80.14 in the afternoon report, down by $2.94.

 

Slowdown in slaughter may be short

 

Traders believes that if there is a slowdown in slaughter due to increased virus cases, a slowdown will be only temporary, according to The Hightower Report. This could add to the tonnage issue for beef supply. The slowdown could back up hogs in the country.

 

La Nina bringing out the bulls

 

La Nina continues to cut rain off from major growing areas in Brazil and Argentina and dry forecasts remain the trend into month end which coincides with one of the more bullish seasonal trends as end user demand picks up around the Thanksgiving holiday, said Jody Lawrence of Strategic Trading Advisors. “The landscape remains consistently bullish/supportive moving forward,” he said.

 

Grain markets were mixed overnight with corn and soybean futures edging higher on global demand optimism while wheat futures slid lower as favorable weather was seen in the U.S. plains over the weekend, Allendale said. Brazil received more rain than expected over the weekend and looks to see precipitation continuing into Wednesday.

 

Fri 11/13/2020 4:35 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base was 33 cents lower to $59.59/cwt.

National live price was not reported due to confidentiality

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was 52 cents higher to $59.23

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were down $2.94 to $80.14/cwt.

 

“Cumulative sales have reached 1.935 mln tonnes, up from 1.594 mln last year at this time and a 5-year average of 1.202 mln,” the Hightower Report said. “The largest buyer this week was China, which purchased 30,593 tonnes, followed by Mexico at 9,920. China has the largest number of commitments for 2020 at 719,537 tonnes, followed by Mexico at 520,716.”

 

Analysts say it is good to see China start making purchases for 2021 as well. “It is important to see the Chinese sales start moving into 2021,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Despite those numbers, hog futures saw selling pressure that weighed across the livestock sector and technical weakness on the move lower.”

 

Cattle continue slump

 

“December cattle closed sharply lower on the session and tested Monday’s low,” the Hightower Report said. “While virus cases are spiking, traders seem confident that this will not slow production. US beef export sales for the week ending Nov. 5 came in at 14,320 tonnes for 2020 and 3,302 for 2021 for a total of 17,622.”

 

“December hogs Closed moderately lower on the session but well up from the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “Ideas that the short-term production could exceed demand helped to pressure the market in spite of very strong weekly export sales. US pork export sales for the week ending Nov. 5 came in at 42,519 tonnes for 2020 and 16,144 for 2021 for 58,663 total.”

 

Quiet day closes out busy week

 

“It was a quiet, uneventful day in the ag markets,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Corn and soybeans garnered support from USDA’s reduction to yield and ending stocks. The wheat market realized a bit of short covering after the past few days of losses. US stock market drew strength form ongoing COVID-19 vaccine optimism.”

 

“The fact USDA dropped US 2020 soybean crop and lowered US 2020/21 carryout will eventually push futures higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Ongoing dry weather pattern across south Brazil and east Argentina is also supportive… Argentina estimates their soybean crop at 46.5 mmt versus USDA 51.0.”

 

Corn

 

“Corn futures traded slightly higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Increase in US farmer selling helped trigger some technical long liquidation… Food and Ag Commodity Economics (Informa) estimated US 2021 corn acres at 91.7 mln versus 91.0 this year. This is down 230,000 acres from their October guess.”

 

“The corn market was slightly higher in quiet trade with prices supported from tightening stocks and decent demand,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “The possibility of renewed shutdowns across the US lurk over the corn market as energy and ethanol demand could see reductions in demand from the spread of the Coronavirus.”

 

Soybeans

 

Soybeans bounced back on Friday. “The soy complex bounced higher on strong demand for US beans, tightening US stock and renewed buying interest after a couple days of weaker prices,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Prices continued to be supported from ongoing dryness in South America.”

 

“Soybeans traded higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “After this week’s USDA numbers and following sharp rally in prices funds reduced their net longs. Lack of new news about new China buying and increase US farmer selling weighed on prices. Record weekly US soybean exports last week and good weekly US export sales offered support.”

 

Wheat

 

"Wheat futures managed to trade higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Fact USDA continued to estimate World wheat end stocks record high weighed on futures. World wheat prices followed lower US futures. Still, dry weather across US south plains… USDA failed to lower Russia 2021 wheat crop enough to trigger new buying.”

 

“The wheat market saw renewed buying interest after the past few days of lower prices,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “World stocks remain plentiful and global demand continues at a decent pace. Prices drew additional support from a weaker US$ and strength in the row crops. Winter wheat seeding has come to a close with HRW acres expected to see a slight increase.”

 

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