[Mon]: Cash cattle finished the week trading at $110 with feeder cattle at $112, Allendale reported. February live cattle futures finished the week only 40 cents higher after being up $3.30 last Tuesday… [Fri]: Afternoon National Slaughter Cattle Review / Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower on Choice and higher on Select… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 6,483 head sold live for $108-110, and 1,161 head sold dressed for $172. In Iowa/Minnesota, there were 5,230 head sold live for $108-111, and 2,298 head sold dressed for $170-172. “Front month futures fell back to support at the 100 Day moving average on the close,” Stewart-Peterson said. “In addition, concerns regarding the resurgence of COVID-19 and potential impacts weighed heavily on the livestock sector. Retail carcass values had a strong week with the Choice carcasses gaining nearly $9.00 in value”…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Mon 11/16/2020 8:30 AM

 

Cattle - Cash cattle finished the week trading at $110 with feeder cattle at $112, Allendale reported. February live cattle futures finished the week only 40 cents higher after being up $3.30 last Tuesday.

 

The market back below the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down, according to The Hightower Report.

 

Slowdown in slaughter may be short

 

Traders believes that if there is a slowdown in slaughter due to increased virus cases, a slowdown will be only temporary, according to The Hightower Report. This could add to the tonnage issue for beef supply. The slowdown could back up hogs in the country.

 

La Nina bringing out the bulls

 

La Nina continues to cut rain off from major growing areas in Brazil and Argentina and dry forecasts remain the trend into month end which coincides with one of the more bullish seasonal trends as end user demand picks up around the Thanksgiving holiday, said Jody Lawrence of Strategic Trading Advisors. “The landscape remains consistently bullish/supportive moving forward,” he said.

 

Grain markets were mixed overnight with corn and soybean futures edging higher on global demand optimism while wheat futures slid lower as favorable weather was seen in the U.S. plains over the weekend, Allendale said. Brazil received more rain than expected over the weekend and looks to see precipitation continuing into Wednesday.

 

Fri 11/13/2020 4:35 PM

 

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower on Choice and higher on Select, the USDA said.

 

Choice was down 52 cents to $225.98/cwt.

Select was up $1.22 to $209.46.

 

In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 6,483 head sold live for $108-110, and 1,161 head sold dressed for $172. In Iowa/Minnesota, there were 5,230 head sold live for $108-111, and 2,298 head sold dressed for $170-172.

 

“Front month futures fell back to support at the 100 Day moving average on the close,” Stewart-Peterson said. “In addition, concerns regarding the resurgence of COVID-19 and potential impacts weighed heavily on the livestock sector. Retail carcass values had a strong week with the Choice carcasses gaining nearly $9.00 in value.”

 

“Cumulative sales have reached 872,715 tonnes, up from 832,853 last year at this time and above the five-year average at 739,446,” the Hightower Report said. “The largest buyer this week was South Korea at 3,842 tonnes (2020 & 2021 combined), followed by China at 3,498, Japan at 3,051 and Canada at 1,877.”

 

Cattle continue slump

 

“December cattle closed sharply lower on the session and tested Monday’s low,” the Hightower Report said. “While virus cases are spiking, traders seem confident that this will not slow production. US beef export sales for the week ending Nov. 5 came in at 14,320 tonnes for 2020 and 3,302 for 2021 for a total of 17,622.”

 

“December hogs Closed moderately lower on the session but well up from the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “Ideas that the short-term production could exceed demand helped to pressure the market in spite of very strong weekly export sales. US pork export sales for the week ending Nov. 5 came in at 42,519 tonnes for 2020 and 16,144 for 2021 for 58,663 total.”

 

Quiet day closes out busy week

 

“It was a quiet, uneventful day in the ag markets,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Corn and soybeans garnered support from USDA’s reduction to yield and ending stocks. The wheat market realized a bit of short covering after the past few days of losses. US stock market drew strength form ongoing COVID-19 vaccine optimism.”

 

“The fact USDA dropped US 2020 soybean crop and lowered US 2020/21 carryout will eventually push futures higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Ongoing dry weather pattern across south Brazil and east Argentina is also supportive… Argentina estimates their soybean crop at 46.5 mmt versus USDA 51.0.”

 

Corn

 

“Corn futures traded slightly higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Increase in US farmer selling helped trigger some technical long liquidation… Food and Ag Commodity Economics (Informa) estimated US 2021 corn acres at 91.7 mln versus 91.0 this year. This is down 230,000 acres from their October guess.”

 

“The corn market was slightly higher in quiet trade with prices supported from tightening stocks and decent demand,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “The possibility of renewed shutdowns across the US lurk over the corn market as energy and ethanol demand could see reductions in demand from the spread of the Coronavirus.”

 

Soybeans

 

Soybeans bounced back on Friday. “The soy complex bounced higher on strong demand for US beans, tightening US stock and renewed buying interest after a couple days of weaker prices,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Prices continued to be supported from ongoing dryness in South America.”

 

“Soybeans traded higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “After this week’s USDA numbers and following sharp rally in prices funds reduced their net longs. Lack of new news about new China buying and increase US farmer selling weighed on prices. Record weekly US soybean exports last week and good weekly US export sales offered support.”

 

Wheat

 

"Wheat futures managed to trade higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Fact USDA continued to estimate World wheat end stocks record high weighed on futures. World wheat prices followed lower US futures. Still, dry weather across US south plains… USDA failed to lower Russia 2021 wheat crop enough to trigger new buying.”

 

“The wheat market saw renewed buying interest after the past few days of lower prices,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “World stocks remain plentiful and global demand continues at a decent pace. Prices drew additional support from a weaker US$ and strength in the row crops. Winter wheat seeding has come to a close with HRW acres expected to see a slight increase.”

 

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