Beef, pork, broiler production boost USDA protein forecast

Higher feed costs expected to limit broiler and pork production in 2021.


Krissa Welshans, Feedstuffs

Nov 12, 2020


The U.S. Department of Agriculture released the latest “World Agricultural & Supply Demand Estimates” report this week, raising its forecast for 2020 total red meat and poultry production to 106.61 billion lb. due to higher beef, pork and broiler production.


Beef production was raised to 27.22 billion lb. from the previous month's report as a result of higher expected slaughter of both fed and non-fed cattle. USDA raised its pork production forecast to 28.18 billion lb. on a more rapid pace of slaughter.


The broiler production forecast was raised to 44.71 billion lb. on expectations for higher production for the fourth quarter. Turkey production was virtually unchanged, at 5.74 billion lb., as higher production in the third quarter largely offset a lower fourth-quarter forecast.


Egg production was reduced very slightly to 9.5 billion doz. eggs as lower reported table egg production in the third quarter more than offset higher hatching egg production.


Compared to the previous month, USDA raised the milk production forecasts for 2020 and 2021 to 222.5 billion lb. and 225.9 billion lb., respectively, on stronger growth in milk per cow and higher expected dairy cow inventory.


USDA raised the 2021 total red meat and poultry forecast to 107.47 billion lb. as expectations for increased broiler production more than offset a lower pork production forecast. Broiler production was raised from the previous month, but higher feed costs are expected to temper production growth. The pork production forecast was reduced slightly due to higher feed costs. Beef and turkey production forecasts were unchanged from last month. USDA raised the 2020 egg production forecast from last month based on higher expected hatching egg production.


The 2020 and 2021 cattle price forecasts were unchanged from last month, at $108.71/cwt. and $114/cwt., respectively. USDA reduced the fourth-quarter 2020 hog price forecast to $43/cwt. on recent price weakness but made no change to the 2021 hog price forecast...