[Fri]: Traders are nervous that supply issues could turn burdensome with the highest weights in five years and slaughter levels likely to increase over the near term. In addition, demand factors are not as strong as normal for this time of the year, largely because of the virus, according to the Cattle Report… [Thurs]: Afternoon National Slaughter Cattle Review / Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 5,618 head sold dressed at $165-169, with 8,719 sold live at $106-108.50. In Iowa/Minnesota, 2,326 head were sold live at $105-109, and 3,231 head were sold dressed at $165-168. December cattle closed moderately lower on the day and the selling pushed the market down to the lowest level in a month, according to The Hightower Report…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 10/16/2020 8:40 AM
Cattle - Cow slaughter continues to be large, indicating liquidation of some herds from drought in the southwest. Most of the increase in cow slaughter is from the beef herd while dairy cows are running under last year as dairy margins improve, according to the Cattle Report.
For the week ended Oct. 3, steer carcass weights were unchanged from the prior week at 924 pounds, Allendale said. Heifer carcass weights increased by 5 pounds to 843. Barrow/gilt carcass weights grew 1 pound from the prior week at 212. On a year-to-year basis hog weights increased from +1.0% to now +1.4%.
Meat demand questioned
Traders are nervous that supply issues could turn burdensome with the highest weights in five years and slaughter levels likely to increase over the near term. In addition, demand factors are not as strong as normal for this time of the year, largely because of the virus, according to the Cattle Report.
Weakness in the China pig price along with the overbought condition of the market might suggest a short-term top is close at hand, according to the Hightower Report.
La Nina may hit South American crop
We might be getting some more business in corn and beans in South America. La Nina could actually reduce the crop down there, especially in southern Brazil and in Argentina, said Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services.
Russian interior wheat prices and Chinese interior corn prices have both hit new record highs this week. The last time anything close to this happened was after the 2012 U.S. drought, according to Jody Lawrence of Strategic Trading Advisors.
The Brazilian government is set to discuss a proposal that would temporarily eliminate the 8% tariffs on corn and soy imports from countries outside of the Mercosur trade bloc, which includes Paraguay, Uruguay & Argentina, said Joe Barker of CHS Hedging.
Thu 10/15/2020 4:42 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower on Choice and Select, USDA said.
Choice fell 66 cents to $210.48/cwt.
Select went down $2.77 to $196.50.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 5,618 head sold dressed at $165-169, with 8,719 sold live at $106-108.50. In Iowa/Minnesota, 2,326 head were sold live at $105-109, and 3,231 head were sold dressed at $165-168.
December cattle closed moderately lower on the day and the selling pushed the market down to the lowest level in a month, according to The Hightower Report.
Live cattle futures are trading in the red, with losses of 30 to 70 cents in the front months, according to Brugler Marketing and Management.
Strong week continues for hogs
Hogs remained strong while cattle struggled in trading today, according to Stewart-Peterson.
It has been a strong week for lean hogs and farmers should take advantage of the rally, according to Scott Shellady of the CME Group. He says the technical are good but the speed of the market jump means there may be some bumps along the way as the market eventually stabilizes.
Wheat shoots up on dryness
Grains were able to shrug off overnight weakness early in today’s day trade and post moderate advances, according to Karl Setzer of Agrivisor.
The grain markets were stronger on demand and world crop concerns from excessive dryness, according to CHS Hedging.
Corn prices rose on dry weather concerns for South America and risking corn prices in China, according to CHS Hedging.
It is possible we may be seeing a shift in Chinese buying from soybeans to corn, according to Karl Setzer of Agrivisor In September alone the Chinese market rallied 14 percent.
Soybean prices traded higher on continued demand for U.S. beans, despite harvest activity and reports of beneficial moisture developing in Brazil, according to CHS Hedging.
Increased tension between the United States and China is a concern and trade guesses for sales to China are down from last week, according to ADM Investor services.
December wheat closed sharply higher on the session and managed to take out its Oct. 8 high, according to The Hightower Report. It is already a tight window for both the United States and Russia to get the winter wheat crop germinated and established before dormancy.
Wheat traded higher on world weather and crop concerns, according to CHS Hedging. The Chicago December 20 contract rose to levels not seen since December of 2014.