Forecasting Outbreaks Could Be a Game-Changer for Pork Industry


Jennifer Shike, FarmJournal's Pork

October 14, 2020


Pig farmers’ willingness to share health information has made it possible to develop accurate forecasts of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) spread within a decision-making timeframe. New research funded by the Swine Health Information Center (SHIC) at North Carolina State University indicates predictability of this forecasting depends on the stage of the spread within the study region.


Being able to forecast disease outbreaks before they occur allows specific control strategies to be tailored to farms in the short-term and the long-term, offering an opportunity to prevent infection. In this study, researchers developed a way to forecast PEDV outbreaks by generating weekly high-resolution maps to track spread and identify current and future PEDV high-risk areas.


“After PEDV broke in 2013, it opened up a whole new avenue of information sharing,” says Paul Sundberg, SHIC executive director. “There was less concern about privacy issues and confidentiality. The industry realized if we share information, we'll all be stronger. If we take advantage of that willingness to share information, then the question becomes, what do you do with it?”


This project is one of the outcomes of that question, Sundberg says.


A Look at the Study ...


Disease Outbreak Forecasts ...


What’s Ahead? ...


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