USDA cuts 2020 pork production outlook
By John Perkins, Brownfield
October 9, 2020
The USDA has lowered its 2020 U.S. pork production projection, while increasing the expectations for beef, broilers, and turkey.
Pork production is pegged at 28.157 billion pounds, down 80 million from September on a slower commercial slaughter pace during the second half of the year and lighter carcass weights, with an average barrow and gilt price of $43.25 per hundredweight, up $3.85 on the month, with a lower exports and higher imports and consumption.
Beef is seen at 27.138 billion pounds, up 90 million because of a faster than expected slaughter pace, with an average steer price of $108.71 per hundredweight, $1.41 higher, steady exports, and higher imports and consumption.
Broiler chicken production...
October WASDE Report
via KTIC (NE) - October 9, 2020
OMAHA (DTN) ó USDA on Friday released its October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports...
USDA increased expected beef supply projections to 27.2 billion pounds, an increase of 90 million pounds from September estimates. Total use of beef is expected to increase by 255 million pounds during the month of October to 27.7 billion pounds.
Pork supplies are estimated to decrease 80 million pounds during the month of October to 28.2 billon pounds. Export expectations of pork decreased by 200 million pounds in the October estimate at 7.3 billion pounds, moving total use to 21.8 billion pounds, based on increased domestic disappearance in the market.
Estimated steer prices increased to $108.71 per cwt compared to September projections of $107.3 per cwt.
Barrow and gilt prices posted the most significant projected price increase moving to $43.25 per cwt in Octobers estimate from Septemberís target of $39.40 per cwt.
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
October 9, 2020
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2020 total red meat and poultry
production is raised from last month. Beef production is raised from the previous month on
higher expected second-half cattle slaughter. The pork production forecast is reduced on lower
second-half commercial hog slaughter and lighter carcass weights. The broiler and turkey
production forecasts are raised on production data to date. The egg production forecast is raised
slightly from last month. For 2021, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the
previous month on higher expected beef, pork, and broiler production. Beef production is raised
from last month on higher expected steer and heifer slaughter. Pork production is raised on
higher forecast commercial hog slaughter. The 2021 broiler production forecast is also raised
from last month on slightly more rapid production growth, but the turkey production forecast is
The 2020 beef import forecast is raised on recent trade data and continued firm import demand
for processing grade beef, while exports are unchanged. For 2021, the beef import forecast is
raised, while the beef export forecast is lowered on slower expected global demand. The 2020
and 2021 pork export forecasts are lowered from last month on weakness in global import
demand. The 2020 and 2021 broiler export forecasts are raised from last month. Egg exports
for 2020 are raised slightly, but no change is made to the 2021 export forecast.
The cattle price forecasts for 2020 is raised on current price strength and robust beef demand;
this increase in price strength was carried into early 2021. Hog price forecasts are raised for
2020 and 2021 on current price movements and continued strength in demand. The 2020 broiler
price forecast is virtually unchanged from last month but is reduced for 2021 on expected supply
pressure. The turkey price forecasts for 2020 and 2021 are raised. The 2020 egg price forecast
is increased on current strength in prices, but 2021 price forecast is unchanged.
Entire Report (PDF):