SHIC-funded study develops way to forecast PEDV outbreaks

Combined strategies of herd closure, feedback and reinforcement of on-farm biosecurity reduced the incidence of outbreaks in sow farms by 14%.


Source: Swine Health Information Center

via National Hog Farmer - Oct 08, 2020


Research funded by the Swine Health Information Center at North Carolina State University shows it is possible to develop accurate forecasts of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus spread within a decision-making timeframe. Results also show predictability of this forecasting depends on the stage of the spread within the region. By forecasting outbreaks before they occur, specific control strategies can be tailored to farms, thereby offering an opportunity to prevent infection.


The objective of the study was to develop a way to forecast PEDV outbreaks by generating weekly high-resolution maps to track spread and identify current and future PEDV high risk areas.  Within the outbreak models, the researchers then tested a combination of strategies that might reduce between-farm transmission, knowing this is key to maintain control of outbreaks while minimizing production disruptions.


Three epidemiological transmission models were compared in this work:


1.    A novel epidemiological framework called PigSpread developed specifically to model disease movement in swine populations

2.    SimInf, a program that models disease spread as a more random event

3.    PoPS (Pest or Pathogen Spread), a framework for modeling the spread of pests or pathogens across a landscape


The models were calibrated on...