[Tues]: While, African swine fever has caused the ban on exports from Germany, it is not a supply issue as of yet. “As a result, Europe could have an oversupply of pork over the near term unless production issues do develop,” The Hightower Report said… [Mon]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary / National carcass base up $4.94... Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up $11.13... USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $1.54... “China banned pork imports from Germany this morning which could be very beneficial for U.S. exports,” Stewart-Peterson said. The USDA also adjusted U.S. production, knocking it lower for the next four quarters, they said...

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Tue 9/15/2020 8:31 AM

 

Lean hogs - With the market at a big premium to the cash market, and the technical overbought condition of the market, The Hightower Report said this morning that it “cannot rule out a significant pullback short-term.”

 

China is also likely to import more pork from the U.S. However, so far this month, China spot pig price is down 3.7%, The Hightower Report said.

 

Beef trends down, but technical action bullish

 

The hog market spiked higher over the last two-weeks on a positive swine flu test in Germany and China immediately banning their imports, said Jody Lawrence of Strategic Trading Advisors. “If more cases show up in Europe, U.S. hog producers will have another opportunity for increased world export business which is a welcome surprise as China’s hog herd rebounds,” Lawrence said.

 

While, African swine fever has caused the ban on exports from Germany, it is not a supply issue as of yet. “As a result, Europe could have an oversupply of pork over the near term unless production issues do develop,” The Hightower Report said.

 

Traders continue to see beef demand as better than expected and some indications of a firmer cash market on Friday helped to support more aggressive buying, The Hightower Report said.

 

Mon 9/14/2020 4:18 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base up $4.94 to $57.84/cwt.

National live was up $1.38, staying at $41.78

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up $11.13 to $60.91

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $1.54 at $79.71/cwt.

 

“China banned pork imports from Germany this morning which could be very beneficial for U.S. exports,” Stewart-Peterson said. The USDA also adjusted U.S. production, knocking it lower for the next four quarters, they said.

 

With China’s ban due to ASF, it hasn’t created a supply issue “as of yet,” The Hightower Report said. They said there are still too many gaps In the charts “with first good support on a setback around $62.35 for December hogs.”

 

Cattle climbing higher

 

The December contract closed “sharply higher” to its highest level since August 26, The Hightower Report as demand is better than expected.

 

Lean hogs “failed to attract new buying interest,” The Hightower Report said. The market dealt with an outside day after Friday’s “massive volume”, and the market sits at a premium to the cash market.

 

Conditions hold steady

 

Traders are watching Sally as the storm has moved to a hurricane set to make landfall in the next couple of days, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. Tech stocks helped firm up Wall Street as well, she said.

 

In today’s crop progress report corn condition was rated 60% good/excellent according to the USDA. Soybean condition is at 63% good/excellent nationwide while winter wheat is 10% planted, just above average pace.

 

Corn

 

Gains were limited in corn today as harvest is expected to get started shortly and conditions were “expected to be steady,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.

 

“The fact China continues to buy U.S. corn is supportive,” ADM Investor Services said. They also noted that the cold weather slowing possible harvest and maturation is helping factors as well.

 

Soybeans

 

“Soybean futures are overbought but momentum traders continue to add to their bullish bias,” ADM Investor Services said.

 

Strong demand and crop sizes being reduced continue to be the biggest boon for the soybean market that has hit two-year highs. There was a slight bit of profit taking on the November contract, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.

 

Wheat

 

Many traders believe wheat prices are “overvalued,” ADM Investor Services said. There has been a lack of farmer selling in Russia which has supported prices near season highs, they said.

 

Some bargain buying helped support wheat from dome early defensive positions, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “There are still hopes that China will be in the market for more U.S. wheat,” she said.

 

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