Pig outlook: very good week for the pork industry

Read Jim Wyckoff's latest weekly analysis of the global hog market.


by Jim Wyckoff, The Pig Site 

11 September 2020


The pig traders’ perspective


December lean hog futures on Thursday 10 September jumped to a six-month high of $62.55 as of this writing Thursday morning. The technical chart posture for the hog futures market has turned solidly bullish as prices have been trending up on the daily chart for over five weeks. Fundamentally, average US hog weights in key markets are under year-ago levels, suggesting the pork industry has made major strides working through big supply backlogs.


US pork product prices are climbing and strong packer profit margins are giving processors room to raise cash hog bids. Seasonality studies point to continued strength heading into USDA’s 24 September Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report. USDA export sales were delayed until Friday 11 September because of the US Labour Day holiday on 7 September.


The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges


December lean hog futures--$60.00 to $65.00, and with a sideways-higher bias


December soybean meal futures--$315.00 to $325.00, and with a sideways-higher bias


December corn futures--$3.50 to $3.70, and a sideways-higher bias


Latest USDA reports, and other news


First German case of African swine fever reported


Germany has confirmed the detection of African swine fever (ASF) in a wild boar near its border with Poland, the country’s ag minister said at a press conference Wednesday 9 September. The country is stressing the “principle of regionality” in the case, emphasising that a farm animal was not involved.


The country is concerned that importers of pork could respond with blanket bans. The German ag ministry said it was in contact with China, as Germany does not have a formal agreement with China about the disease.


South Korea has already responded by banning German pork imports. Germany is a major EU pork exporter, shipping 158,000 metric tonnes of pork valued at around $501.6 million to China from January to April of this year. Poland has been dealing with ASF for some time. Germany has set up a quarantine zone in the area where the wild boar was detected, including a ban on corn harvest in the area.


USDA’s Ukraine livestock summary ...


more, including chart