[Thurs]: The trend towards lower cash cattle prices has continued into this week… With beef prices and cash markets in a downtrend, and futures at a premium, the market looks vulnerable to long liquidation selling from fund traders, The Hightower Report said… [Weds]: Afternoon National Slaughter Cattle Review: Cash lower / National Daily Boxed Beef Cutout And Boxed Beef Cuts - Negotiated Sales - Afternoon: Cutout Choice -$1.87, Select -$0.95 / Cash cattle averaged $103.12 last week according to the All Grades section on the well-known 5 Area report. The previous week averaged $105.09. This was the lowest cattle trade in four weeks…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Thu 9/10/2020 8:48 AM
Cattle - The trend towards lower cash cattle prices has continued into this week.
“The weakness in the cash market leaves December cattle trading at $8-$9 premium to the cash,” The Hightower Report said this morning.
Cattle are still seeking post-holiday demand, Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing said, as live cattle futures were weaker at the closing bell on Wednesday, and feeder cattle futures also ended the day with losses.
With beef prices and cash markets in a downtrend, and futures at a premium, the market looks vulnerable to long liquidation selling from fund traders, The Hightower Report said.
No sign of peak pork prices
The German state of Brandenburg found a case of African swine fever in a wild boar. The South Korean government is now banning pork imports from Germany following the case, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said this morning.
At home, the hog market remains in a steep uptrend with December hogs trading up to the highest level since April 28.
“There is still no sign of a short-term peak, but if pork cut-out values begin to decline, and the slaughter pace picks up, the market may be seen as a bit overvalued,” The Hightower Report said this morning.
In the U.S., ideas that beef demand could struggle in a period of increased production has helped to pressure prices downward, The Hightower Report said.
Wed 9/9/2020 4:20 PM
Stocker and feeder prices are adjusting to the larger supplies currently moving into mostly full feed yards, according to The Cattle Report. Prices are lower across all regions and classes of cattle.
Cash cattle averaged $103.12 last week according to the All Grades section on the well-known 5 Area report. The previous week averaged $105.09. This was the lowest cattle trade in four weeks. On the positive side, this would suggest we didn’t move as many of those $102’s last week as we expected, according to Allendale.
Meat sales looking strong
The continued strong surge in pork cut-out values, plus the fact that producers remain current with marketing's are factors which could keep the short-term trend up, The Hightower Report said. Longer-term, the market will need to see continued very strong exports to hold pork prices at a high level during the period of increasing slaughter from mid-September through mid-November.
Unemployment is declining and with the decline and people headed back to work, more normalized daily lives are reported with diets and eating patterns returning to pre-virus levels, according to The Cattle Report. Beef has proven itself resilient and consumers may have changed sources of beef from restaurants to the home, but people find solace and security in choosing a beef product regularly.
USDA report to carry weight
Traders will want to see the numbers from Friday’s USDA report before making any decisive moves from current prices, said Jacob Christy of The Andersons. “It appears that Friday’s report is one that could carry a lot of importance and we could see a big price response one way or another,” he said.
Last night was another night of freezes in much of the Northern Plains, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said. Light freezes with a few pockets that dropped to or slightly below 28 Fahrenheit will occur in Montana, North Dakota and western and northern South Dakota, along with the northern half of Minnesota. The Midwest 8- to 10-day forecast calls for normal temps and dry weather.
Crude oil has fallen almost 20% in the last week on slowing demand and has fallen to new three-month lows, Jody Lawrence of Strategic Trading Advisors said. The collapse has not pressured corn and ethanol prices yet but seasonal demand slowdowns have already started.
Corn estimates for Friday’s WASDE report are for yields to fall from 181.8 via USDA on Aug. 12 to 178.3. Allendale said. This is in line with Allendale’s Nationwide Producer Yield Survey at 178.28. The trade expects an 83.5 million acre harvested number, 0.5 under USDA’s 8-12 report.
The winning streak for beans continues into what must be some sort of record non-weather event territory which is just another unexpected twist this year, said Jody Lawrence of Strategic Trading Advisors. “With a short week and a major report on Friday, Chinese demand will be the driver until Friday’s 11 a.m. report release,” he said.
The short-term fundamentals remain positive as there continues to be uncertainty on the U.S. and China production outlook, and demand remains very strong, according to The Hightower Report. China continues to be an aggressive buyer of U.S. soybeans even with the recent strong rally.
Most look for U.S. 2021 U.S. winter wheat acres to be near or slightly below last year, said Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services. Some feel farmers may plant more sorghum than hard red winter wheat.
Customs data shows that Russia exported 15 million metric tons of wheat from January to July versus 13.6 million tons last year, according to Michaela White of CHS Hedging.