In this file:

 

·         China may face overcapacity in pig farming industry amid surging profits

… could reach 2 billion heads per year, in contrast with pig consumption of 650 million heads per year, meaning that the hog industry would face overcapacity or "a disaster," Tao Yishan, chairman of pig farming and meat processing firm Tangrenshen Group, told ceweekly.cn…

 

·         If China Is Rebuilding Their Hog Herd, Why Did They Import So Much US Pork?

“I have a feeling the Chinese thought their hog herd would be a lot further along in the rebuilding process than what it currently is,” he said. “They have added a lot of hogs, their numbers are growing, but they’re not growing fast enough. All of a sudden you catch wind there’s been another outbreak of ASF.”

 

·         China’s hog herd recovery forecast questioned

Claims out of China that hog production in that country will recover by next year to pre-2018 levels do not pass the smell test, says economic analyst Brett Stuart of Global AgriTrends…

 

 

China may face overcapacity in pig farming industry amid surging profits

 

Source: Global Times(China)

2020/9/7

 

China's pig farming capacity (including capacity under construction) could reach 2 billion heads per year, in contrast with pig consumption of 650 million heads per year, meaning that the hog industry would face overcapacity or "a disaster," Tao Yishan, chairman of pig farming and meat processing firm Tangrenshen Group, told ceweekly.cn recently.

 

Tao's comments came as domestic pig farming companies are seeing seductive profits and accelerating live pig capacities amid surging prices following the catering industry's gradual recovery as COVID-19 restriction measures are eased.

 

For instance, New Hope Group, a food company specializing in farming and animal products, saw its net profit (attributable to owners of its parent company) rise by 102.57 percent year-on-year to 3.164 billion yuan ($463.06 million) in the first half of the year, according to its financial report.

 

As of the end of June 2020, New Hope's pig farming capacity reached 18 million heads, and will further increase by 12 million heads to a total of 30 million heads by the end of September, according to media reports. It also said that live pig supply will remain tight in the second half of the year with seasonal rebounds in demand set to boost prices again.

 

The number of pigs imported from overseas has increased significantly this year. As of September, imported purebred pigs hit a five-year high of 10,637 heads, more than 110 in the whole of 2017, market information provider SCI99 told the Global Times on Monday.

 

"Although the industry is seeing high profits due to surging pig prices, China's pig farming capacity will fully recover in 2021, by which time the price of live pigs may drop with the increase of supply," said Wang Lingyun, an analyst at SCI99...

 

more

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1200194.shtml

 

  

If China Is Rebuilding Their Hog Herd, Why Did They Import So Much US Pork?

 

By Ashley Davenport, Hoosier Ag Today

Sep 7, 2020

 

The hog complex has seen multiple days of impressive gains this week. In USDA’s latest export sales report, net sales of pork totaled more than 53,000 metric tons. That’s the second highest of the calendar year to date. 54 percent of that went to China.

 

According to Karl Setzer of AgriVisor, China has been purchasing all the pork they can from the U.S. and Brazil.

 

“Brazil just can’t get pork out like the U.S. can,” he said. “We’ve got this huge backlog of hogs that we’ve got to get through and our cold storage is big. It’s been exactly what that entire hog complex needs.”

 

There have been plenty of reports that China is rebuilding their hog herd after African swine fever (ASF) ravaged half their herd. Setzer said China has auctioned roughly 500,000 metric tons of pork out of their governmental reserves.

 

“I have a feeling the Chinese thought their hog herd would be a lot further along in the rebuilding process than what it currently is,” he said. “They have added a lot of hogs, their numbers are growing, but they’re not growing fast enough. All of a sudden you catch wind there’s been another outbreak of ASF.”

 

China has launched the “Clean Plate Campaign.” BBC reported this was in response to food waste from the pandemic. Setzer is skeptical that it’s about eliminating food waste.

 

“China is telling us there’s not a food shortage, but yet something doesn’t add up,” he said. “China is rebuilding their hog herd, but they’re not building it fast enough to meet their demand.”

 

Smaller Chinese pork producers are moving to urban areas to get away...

 

more, including audio [11:02 min.]  

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/if-china-is-rebuilding-their-hog-herd-why-did-they-import-so-much-us-pork/

 

 

China’s hog herd recovery forecast questioned

Inventory levels aren’t expected to reach pre-ASF levels this year, and sow herd quality is likely to be lower than before

 

By Barb Glen, The Western Producer (Canada) 

September 3, 2020

 

Claims out of China that hog production in that country will recover by next year to pre-2018 levels do not pass the smell test, says economic analyst Brett Stuart of Global AgriTrends.

 

African swine fever forced the culling of an estimated 60 percent of the Chinese herd after an outbreak began there in August 2018. China at that point was home to half the hogs in the world, so those losses constituted 30 percent of the world total, Stuart said during an online session at the Canadian Beef Industry Conference.

 

Large corporate hog operations in China are expanding and the country is claiming victory over ASF, said Stuart, but those large operations make up only 12 percent of the country’s production.

 

“So 88 percent of that production is still on farms of less than 1,000 head. Those small farms share trucking, they share feed mills, they share infrastructure and they continue to battle ASF.

 

“So while these big farms put out a lot of press releases about how well they’re doing and their success, the reality is China’s not going to get over this anytime soon,” said Stuart.

 

He provided figures estimating that China is short on pork by about 24 million tonnes and there is no protein source on earth that can fill a shortfall of that size.

 

Meanwhile, Chinese citizens are eating less pork and paying a lot for it, at about US$3.20 per pound. The cut-out price on U.S. pork now is about 60 cents per lb., said Stuart.

 

In a market economy, that price situation would lead to increased trade and higher prices for producers in exporting countries, but China is not a market economy and is not stepping in to buy product and fully meet domestic pork demand.

 

Last spring, China bought 10 percent of U.S. pork production and still buys about five percent of it today, Stuart said.

 

“China went from one percent of our production to 10 percent of our production in a year. They absorbed nine percent production growth. What happened? The U.S. obviously expanded a few percent more than that and so now we’re sitting here with low prices.”

 

Hog futures have floundered and producers in the U.S. and Canada are getting out of the business, he said.

 

“It’s a dire situation.”

 

Other market watchers agree with Stuart that China’s claims of imminent herd size recovery are overblown…

 

more, including charts         

https://www.producer.com/2020/09/chinas-hog-herd-recovery-forecast-questioned/