[Tues]: Last week ended with strong export sales which were very supportive, with the jump in pork prices on Thursday likely due to a flurry of more export sales, Stewart-Peterson said… “Lighter than expected weights helped to keep pork production down in a period of strong export demand,” the Hightower Report said… [Fri]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary: Cash hogs reported mixed, cutout flat / Lighter weights should keep pork production lower, which combined with good export demand to support hog markets. “Lighter than expected weights helped to keep pork production down in a period of strong export demand,” the Hightower Report said…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Tue 9/8/2020 8:53 AM

 

Lean hogs - Last week ended with strong export sales which were very supportive, with the jump in pork prices on Thursday likely due to a flurry of more export sales, Stewart-Peterson said.

 

Lighter than expected weights helped to keep pork production down in a period of strong export demand, The Hightower Report said.

 

Cattle downtrend; pork not at peak

 

The cattle market is in a short-term downtrend, and if beef prices continue to drift lower and the slaughter pace picks up, it will be difficult for October cattle to hold on to a premium to the cash market, The Hightower Report said this morning.

 

Further, cattle export sales have been slow lately and there is talk that very cheap poultry prices may shift some domestic demand away from beef, Stewart-Peterson said.

 

Meanwhile, there is still no technical sign of a short-term peak as pork demand indicators are strong, The Hightower Report said.

 

Fri 9/4/2020 4:48 PM

 

Lighter weights should keep pork production lower, which combined with good export demand to support hog markets. “Lighter than expected weights helped to keep pork production down in a period of strong export demand,” the Hightower Report said. “Pork cut-out values at midsession came in at $81.53, up $1.34 on the day.”

 

“Carcass cutout values surged a massive 7.44 this morning to 80.95,” Stewart-Peterson said. Mid-session bounces like that are usually caused by a spike in export activity. This won’t show up until next week’s report. For the week ending August 27, the US sold 53,600 tonnes of pork, up 36% from last week and up sharply from the previous 4-week average.”

 

Cattle move higher

 

"October cattle closed moderately higher on the session after choppy and two-sided trade for much of the session,” the Hightower Report said. "Talk of the oversold condition of the market going into a 3-day weekend helped to provide some early support. Traders are fearful that with high weights, a jump in slaughter to above year ago levels would boost beef production.”

 

“October and December hogs rallied to above the 200 day moving average early today, but the market closed well off of the highs but still higher on the day,” the Hightower Report said. “The market has the appearance that a short-term peak may be in place after absorbing plenty of bullish demand news for the week.”

 

Weather concerns may trim yield expectations

 

“Concern dry and hot temperatures during the month of August may have trimmed yields significantly has been, in part, the catalyst to the recent run higher in (soybean) prices,” Stewart-Peterson said. “The other catalyst has been continuous strong, almost daily buying by China. China was a noted buyer again today.”

 

"Quiet day in the grain markets as most positions got squared away early, ahead of the long weekend,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Additional pressure came from a second day of losses in the energy and equities markets. Trade was fairly thin as many participants were off the markets.”

 

Corn

 

“The corn market traded higher ahead of the long holiday weekend,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Support stems from the unknown of what the USDA will report for a yield and production in next week’s Supply & Demand report. As of Last Tuesday, the funds were said to be long 19k contracts.”

 

“Corn futures traded higher on low volume,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “There may have been some fund liquidation of long soybean and short corn spread positions. There was talk that China may import 15-20 mmt corn in 20/21. US share could be 12 mmt. USDA estimates their total imports near7 mmt.”

 

Soybeans

 

“The soybean market traded higher on demand and weather outlook and uncertainty about the size of this year’s bean crop,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “This makes ten days running and still going strong. China buys more beans, with today’s sales announcement about half of what was said to have been sold yesterday.”

 

“Soybean edged higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “USDA announced new US soybean sales to China and soymeal sales to Philippines. US Midwest 7 day weather forecast suggest below normal temps and normal rains. Maps suggest 1.00-2.00 inches of rain Sunday across Iowa and northern Illinois.”

 

Wheat

 

“Wheat prices were lower on lack of fresh supportive news,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Losses were limited from potential crop losses in Argentina and Australia from recent frost. Mpls traded lower on increased farmer selling. KC gained on Mpls with a 69 ¼ cent premium to Mpls in the December.”

 

“There is worry about drought on the western edge of the southwest plains, however rains have elevated a lot of stress in other major areas giving much needed relief for future planting conditions,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Spring harvest is expected to finally be able to make up some ground this week, Monday’s crop progress will confirm or deny that.”

 

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