[Tues]: Cattle weights are increasing and will likely continue to increase due to cool weather, and this will add to beef production over the next few weeks, said Stewart-Peterson… The cattle market is in a short-term downtrend, and if beef prices continue to drift lower and the slaughter pace picks up, it will be difficult for October cattle to hold on to a premium to the cash market, The Hightower Report said this morning… [Fri]: Afternoon National Slaughter Cattle Review / Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported no live sales, and 80 head sold dressed for $162. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were 533 head sold live for $102.50-104, and 232 head sold dressed for $162. “There seems to be plenty of market-ready cattle coming off of feedlots, and plenty of feedlot-ready cattle coming off of pasture to keep supply as a bearish force short-term,” the Hightower Report said…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Tue 9/8/2020 8:53 AM

 

Cattle - Cattle weights are increasing and will likely continue to increase due to cool weather, and this will add to beef production over the next few weeks, said Stewart-Peterson.

 

Traders are fearful that with high weights, a jump in slaughter to above year-ago levels would boost beef production to a burdensome level this month, The Hightower Report said this morning.

 

Cattle downtrend; pork not at peak

 

The cattle market is in a short-term downtrend, and if beef prices continue to drift lower and the slaughter pace picks up, it will be difficult for October cattle to hold on to a premium to the cash market, The Hightower Report said this morning.

 

Further, cattle export sales have been slow lately and there is talk that very cheap poultry prices may shift some domestic demand away from beef, Stewart-Peterson said.

 

Meanwhile, there is still no technical sign of a short-term peak as pork demand indicators are strong, The Hightower Report said.

 

Fri 9/4/2020 4:48 PM

 

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower on Choice and Select, the USDA said.

 

Choice was down $1.39 to $225.85/cwt.

Select was $3.20 lower to $209.30.

 

In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported no live sales, and 80 head sold dressed for $162. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were 533 head sold live for $102.50-104, and 232 head sold dressed for $162.

 

“There seems to be plenty of market-ready cattle coming off of feedlots, and plenty of feedlot-ready cattle coming off of pasture to keep supply as a bearish force short-term,” the Hightower Report said. “Boxed beef cut-out values at midsession came in at $226.52, down $0.27 on the day.”

 

“While October futures are not yet in delivery month, traders seem to think the premium of October futures to cash is a bit rich, especially with beef and cash trending lower,” Stewart-Peterson said. “October live cattle made their lowest close today since July 27 but still spent the entire session within yesterday’s trading range.”

 

Cattle move higher

 

"October cattle closed moderately higher on the session after choppy and two-sided trade for much of the session,” the Hightower Report said. "Talk of the oversold condition of the market going into a 3-day weekend helped to provide some early support. Traders are fearful that with high weights, a jump in slaughter to above year ago levels would boost beef production.”

 

“October and December hogs rallied to above the 200 day moving average early today, but the market closed well off of the highs but still higher on the day,” the Hightower Report said. “The market has the appearance that a short-term peak may be in place after absorbing plenty of bullish demand news for the week.”

 

Weather concerns may trim yield expectations

 

“Concern dry and hot temperatures during the month of August may have trimmed yields significantly has been, in part, the catalyst to the recent run higher in (soybean) prices,” Stewart-Peterson said. “The other catalyst has been continuous strong, almost daily buying by China. China was a noted buyer again today.”

 

"Quiet day in the grain markets as most positions got squared away early, ahead of the long weekend,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Additional pressure came from a second day of losses in the energy and equities markets. Trade was fairly thin as many participants were off the markets.”

 

Corn

 

“The corn market traded higher ahead of the long holiday weekend,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Support stems from the unknown of what the USDA will report for a yield and production in next week’s Supply & Demand report. As of Last Tuesday, the funds were said to be long 19k contracts.”

 

“Corn futures traded higher on low volume,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “There may have been some fund liquidation of long soybean and short corn spread positions. There was talk that China may import 15-20 mmt corn in 20/21. US share could be 12 mmt. USDA estimates their total imports near7 mmt.”

 

Soybeans

 

“The soybean market traded higher on demand and weather outlook and uncertainty about the size of this year’s bean crop,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “This makes ten days running and still going strong. China buys more beans, with today’s sales announcement about half of what was said to have been sold yesterday.”

 

“Soybean edged higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “USDA announced new US soybean sales to China and soymeal sales to Philippines. US Midwest 7 day weather forecast suggest below normal temps and normal rains. Maps suggest 1.00-2.00 inches of rain Sunday across Iowa and northern Illinois.”

 

Wheat

 

“Wheat prices were lower on lack of fresh supportive news,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Losses were limited from potential crop losses in Argentina and Australia from recent frost. Mpls traded lower on increased farmer selling. KC gained on Mpls with a 69 ¼ cent premium to Mpls in the December.”

 

“There is worry about drought on the western edge of the southwest plains, however rains have elevated a lot of stress in other major areas giving much needed relief for future planting conditions,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Spring harvest is expected to finally be able to make up some ground this week, Monday’s crop progress will confirm or deny that.”

 

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