[Tues]: Weekly slaughter rates remain below what they were a year before, but the industry is making strides to get back to where they had been before COVID-19, said USDA livestock analysis Shayle Shagam. Still, some cattle are backed up… [Mon]: Afternoon National Slaughter Cattle Review / Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher on Choice and lower on Select… Choice was up 78 cents… Select was down 50 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, there was no reportable trade, the USDA said. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were 375 head sold live for $99, and 78 head sold dressed for $157. “Friday’s Cattle On Feed and Cattle Inventory reports were mostly neutral,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Cash cattle trade last week was choppy and slightly higher than the previous week… “The number of cattle on feedlots for 90-days or longer came in at 5.7% above last year and up 12.1% from the 5-year average,” the Hightower Report said. “This is a bearish factor…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Tue 7/28/2020 8:42 AM

 

Cattle - Weekly slaughter rates remain below what they were a year before, but the industry is making strides to get back to where they had been before COVID-19, said USDA livestock analysis Shayle Shagam. Still, some cattle are backed up. As of July 1, feedlot numbers were the second highest on record, he said on USDA Radio Newswire.

 

Cattle futures initially tried to put a bullish spin on the USDA reports, but closed lower on Monday, said Brugler Marketing.

 

At this point, October cattle is looking more and more like a significant top is in place. “Consider selling calls or futures on any bounce,” The Hightower Report said this morning.

 

Backup on feed lots limit up trend

 

The USDA Cattle-On-Feed report Friday was supportive enough to drive the market higher early yesterday, but traders see the backup on feedlots as a longer-term bearish force, The Hightower Report said this morning.

 

A sharp break in the U.S. dollar is helping exports, but if U.S. China relations continue to worsen, lower prices may be ahead, The Hightower Report said this morning.

 

Joe Lardy of CHS Hedging also noted this morning that China plans to auction 10,000 MMT of frozen pork from state reserves on July 30.

 

Mon 7/27/2020 5:01 PM

 

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher on Choice and lower on Select, the USDA said.

 

Choice was up 78 cents to $202.55/cwt.

Select was down 50 cents to $190.13.

 

In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, there was no reportable trade, the USDA said. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were 375 head sold live for $99, and 78 head sold dressed for $157.

 

“Friday’s Cattle On Feed and Cattle Inventory reports were mostly neutral,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Cash cattle trade last week was choppy and slightly higher than the previous week. Beef production last week was up 2.2% from the same week last year despite a kill count that came in 6,000 head lower than the same week last year.”

 

“The number of cattle on feedlots for 90-days or longer came in at 5.7% above last year and up 12.1% from the 5-year average,” the Hightower Report said. “This is a bearish factor. In fact, the supply of cattle which has been on 120 days is at 4.858 mln head, up 16.3% last year and up 24.2% from the five year average.”

 

Hogs higher, cattle fall

 

“October cattle closed sharply lower on the day after a sharply higher opening,” the Hightower Report said. “The cattle-on-feed report from the USDA show smaller than expected placements of cattle onto feedlots during the month of June. The news was slightly supportive against trade expectations, but the hefty total meat supply is hard to absorb in a period of weak demand.”

 

Hogs were higher Monday, although traders continue to have concerns about the supply size. “October hogs closed higher on the day after another impressive move higher in pork values,” the Hightower Report said. “…The market opened higher with strength in the cattle but traders remain nervous over the ability of market to absorb the huge short-term supply.”

 

Grains "mostly negative" on Monday

 

Monday was a challenging day for grain markets, despite a weaker U.S. dollar. “Mostly negative day in the grain markets, despite weakness in the US dollar,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Soybeans and soymeal did manage to eke out a bit of green on the board from ongoing demand for US beans.”

 

"Corn futures traded lower on light volume,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Talk of higher US corn yields and slow US export pace of offset by continued higher Dalian China corn prices… Over the next 7 days, US Midwest rains will focus on the south Midwest, Ohio valley and Delta. Midwest temps have moderated and are near normal.”

 

Corn

 

A more agreeable weather outlook helped push corn slightly lower Monday. “The corn market traded slightly lower on a bit cooler outlook with chances for bouts of rain,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Weakness from the neighboring wheat market seemed to be overshadowed by sharp losses in the US dollar.”

 

Corn exports were running behind projections. “Export inspections came in at 31.4 mln bushels, well below the 57.3 needed on a weekly pace to meet USDA projections,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Total inspections year to date are 1.463 bln bushels, behind last year’s pace and still well below the USDA projection for this year at 1.775.”

 

Soybeans

 

“The soybean market garnered strength as the US continues to reel in the bean business from China,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Today’s sales announcements included a sizable sale to Mexico for the next marketing year. Gains were limited from an improved weather outlook as the beans enter their pod filling stage in a couple of weeks.”

 

Despite the positive overall day for soybeans, weaker export news and good crop conditions kept rally potential in check. “Export inspections at 17.4 mln bushels were below the 40.4 mln needed to meet USDA projections,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Today’s number was considered a disappointment. Year to date inspections are at 1.425 bln bushels, down 4% from last year."

 

Wheat

 

Wheat markets plunged on Monday due to a number of factors. "Wheat prices got thumped on improving yields in Russia and technical selling, despite a much softer US dollar,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Getting the feeling that the spring wheat crop will be plentiful, against mostly routine business.”

 

“The on again, off again futures trade was off again today,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Word of lower French wheat futures weighed on US futures. Talk that Russia winter wheat yields were getting better also offered resistance. Talk that World wheat trade is slow to start due to virus impact on importer economies also offers resistance to World prices.”

 

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