US infection jump a threat to beef exports
Shan Goodwin, North Queensland Register (Australia)
24 Jul 2020
THE latest dramatic spike in coronavirus infection rates in the United States that has pushed ten states back into some form of lockdown is shaping up to provide new challenges for Australian beef exports.
However, there is upside too in the US with the emergence of evidence that burger and fast food giants have adapted beautifully to the 'new ways of living' and are likely to keep demanding Australian grinding beef in high volumes.
The outlook for the US market is arguably the most volatile in a beef export portfolio saturated with uncertainty.
International beef market analyst Simon Quilty, Global Agritrends, said there were serious concerns that rising COVID-19 cases in the US, combined with the move towards their winter, would lead to permanent closures of far more restaurants.
"Industry participants in the US estimate as many as 20 to 30 per cent of sit-down restaurants which have been relying on outdoor dining - which is basically all eating places that don't have a drive-through service - could close permanently," he said.
Between five and seven per cent have closed so far.
"This would be incredibly damning for high end beef and lamb racks," Mr Quilty said.
The US stimulus packages introduced in March and April had put money in the pockets of average Americans, he said.
"Combined, they total $2.8 trillion US dollars and participants in both food service and the retail sector all say people are spending it on food.
"The key is being in the right sector or channel to capitalise on this additional spending."
Australian beef is typically taken up by the food service sector, while the retail selector is driven by domestic fresh trimmings - that has been the case for at least 20 years.
"Once winter comes, the thinking is people will revert back to home eating far more, exacerbated by rising infection rates," Mr Quilty said.
"Unfortunately, it is very difficult for Australian beef exporters to pivot - that requires significant changes in structure and investments."
The strength of the burger drive-through market, however, is providing optimism.
Senior market analyst with Mecardo Adrian Ladaniwskyj said large USA corporate burger chains such as McDonalds and Burger King have reported sales to within 5 per cent of pre- COVID-19 levels.
They successfully adapted their business model in response to the crisis within six to eight weeks, he said.
Ground burger beef accounts for 40pc of the US's domestic beef consumption, and requires largely imported lean beef on a 1:1 basis to make burgers, Mr Ladaniwskyj reported.
Those promising figures, coupled with expected Thanksgiving and holiday manufacturer demand, should provide support to US import prices going forward, he said.
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