In this file:
· Varilek’s Cattle Call: Futures Rally
… The cattle on feed report fell in line with the estimates… The cattle inventory was also released Friday as well… I would think both reports will not change many opinions towards the futures markets…
· On Feed report signals ongoing declines in beef-cow numbers
… A livestock economist says there were no major surprises in the USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed report…
· July 1st cattle inventory slightly above year ago
… The numbers look mostly neutral...
Varilek’s Cattle Call: Futures Rally
Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek Trading, Opinion
via Tri-State Livestock News - Jul 24, 2020
The cattle on feed report fell in line with the estimates Friday other than the placement number printing 102% versus the 104% estimate. On feed and at 100% and marketings at 101% were right in line. It should not have much bearing on market action in my opinion.
The cattle inventory was also released Friday as well. The one number I like to track is beef heifer replacement which came in at 4.40 million head making it unchanged from a year ago. We are seeing a slight decrease in the cow herd size, but I did expect more to be honest. Regardless, I would think both reports will not change many opinions towards the futures markets.
Cash was uneventful again with few trades from $157-$161 from north to south. It continued to be slightly higher than the previous week, but it was nothing to do a cartwheel over. The saying of taking the stairs up and the elevator down has proved to be true. Showlists have become more manageable but were far from having any leverage over the packer. A few trades took place for two months out for an even basis off the October board. That was maybe a good sign with a major worried about inventory that far out.
The 50-14 negotiated cash bill is still in the headlines as cattle groups pick sides. In my opinion, without it, we are on a fast pace to a more vertically integrated market with less players. I am stamping my approval on the bill and hope you strongly consider your stance to help producers gain some leverage. If the bill is to succeed, we need full support...
On Feed report signals ongoing declines in beef-cow numbers
By Meghan Grebner, Brownfield
July 24, 2020
A livestock economist says there were no major surprises in the USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed report.
But, University of Missouri’s Scott Brown says he is continuing to watch the percentage of heifers placed on feed. “Thirty-eight and a half percent of cattle on feed were heifers,” he says. “That certainly, to me, suggests that nobody is holding back heifers to build the herd at this point. I think it’s good news that we don’t see some expansion on the supply side that we weren’t anticipating.”
July 1st cattle inventory slightly above year ago
By John Perkins, Brownfield
July 24, 2020
The USDA says the domestic cattle inventory on July 1st was up slightly on the year. The calf crop for the first half of the year does indicate herd contraction is starting for some producers, down 1% from last year at 26.1 million head, with the USDA also anticipating a modestly lower than a year ago birth rate during the second half of 2020 at 9.7 million head. A year ago, the January to June calf crop was 26.35 million head, while the July through December crop was 9.710 million head.
The total herd of 103 million head included 41.4 million cows and heifers that have calved, slightly below a year ago, with a 1% decline in beef cows to 32.05 million cancelling out a 1% rise in milk cows at 9.35 million head. All heifers weighing more than 500 pounds were 1% above last year at 16.5 million head, with beef replacement and milk replacement heifers unchanged at 4.4 million and 4.1 million head, respectively, and other heifers 1% higher at 8 million head. Steers weighing 500 pounds and heavier were up 2% at 15 million head and bulls weighing more than 500 pounds were unchanged at 2.1 million, while calves weighing less than 500 pounds were slightly lower at 28 million head.
The numbers look mostly neutral...