[Mon]: Cattle on Feed report held a bullish placement surprise which should keep buying interest int the market, according to Jody Lawrence of Strategic Trading Advisors… The continued push higher in average weights would point to potential burdensome supply if slaughter levels pick up at all, according to The Hightower Report… [Fri]: Afternoon National Slaughter Cattle Review / Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were slightly lower… Choice down 49 cents… Select went down 16 cents... In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 454 head sold live at $98, with 88 sold dressed. In Iowa/Minnesota, 684 head were sold live at $100-101, and 148 head were sold dressed at $158… “Stay long” in the cattle market, Michael Seery of Seery Futures said. “If you take a look at the daily chart a possible rounding bottom chart pattern may have developed just like it did in the platinum market and I still think prices will break the $105 level in the coming days ahead”…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Mon 7/27/2020 8:25 AM

 

Cattle - Friday’s Cattle on Feed report held a bullish placement surprise which should keep buying interest int the market, according to Jody Lawrence of Strategic Trading Advisors. December cattle have rallied almost $10 over the past five weeks and continue to have both bullish technical and fundamental factors.

 

The continued push higher in average weights would point to potential burdensome supply if slaughter levels pick up at all, according to The Hightower Report. Traders will monitor USDA reports this afternoon and remain concerned with the higher-than-normal premium futures hold to the cash market.

 

COVID pressures packers

 

Smithfield Foods said workers cannot be socially distant in all areas of its plants, in response to senators who pressed meatpackers on coronavirus outbreaks in slaughterhouses, Allendale said. Meatpackers are under mounting pressure to protect workers after more than 16,000 employees in 23 states have been infected with COVID-19 and 86 workers died in circumstances related to the respiratory disease, according to CDC data.

 

Commercial slaughter figures for June were released showing cattle slaughter 2.4% above last year, according to The Cattle Report. More heartening was the fact that the tonnage (6.6% increase) was successfully absorbed by the market without a major disruption. This was helped by gaps in the beef pipeline that were refilled. Pork slaughter also reported large numbers indicating both the impact of the backlog and the heavier weights.

 

Fri 7/24/2020 4:26 PM

 

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were slightly lower on Choice and Select, USDA said.

 

Choice down 49 cents to $201.77/cwt.

Select went down 16 cents to $190.63.

 

In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 454 head sold live at $98, with 88 sold dressed. In Iowa/Minnesota, 684 head were sold live at $100-101, and 148 head were sold dressed at $158.

 

Today was an inside trading session as traders tried to position ahead of the USDA report, The Hightower Report said. “Futures are attempting to hold premium to the cash market in a period of ample supply,” they said.

 

“Stay long” in the cattle market, Michael Seery of Seery Futures said. “If you take a look at the daily chart a possible rounding bottom chart pattern may have developed just like it did in the platinum market and I still think prices will break the $105 level in the coming days ahead.”

 

Cattle on feed sees slight decrease

 

The newest Cattle on Feed report came out this afternoon, with results “down slightly,” according to the USDA. The total cattle on feed decreased to 11.4 mln head, while placements increased by 2% from last year to 1.80 mln head and marketings were up 1% from last year to 1.97 mln head.

 

Slaughter this week came in steady for cattle this week, at 646,000 head (down 4,000 head from last week), while lean hogs saw a 71,000 head increase from last week at 2.589 mln head.

 

Outside factors drive trade

 

“Today was more about outside markets than it was about grain markets,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. The U.S. dollar hit “multi-year” lows, while gold is at a 9-year high.

 

“The battle of the countries appears to be on,” Heesch said. She noted the China/U.S. tensions rising with the U.S. ordered to close a consulate and the U.S. ordering China to close one of their own. “Energy and equity markets seem to be nervous about the fate of the U.S. and global economy with the U.S. and China at odds over several issues.”

 

Corn

 

David Mershon of Anderson’s Grain said the December contract “continues to be rangebound,” as the crop continues to progress in favorable weather. “We are making it to the timeframe where we see the dip in prices in August and September.”

 

“Crop conditions are expected to be steady or see improvement” on Monday, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.

 

Soybeans

 

While corn is rangebound, beans “are a lot stronger,” supported by Chinese buying, David Mershon of Anderson’s Grain said. “We will have a very good opportunity moving forward to price beans for harvest.”

 

Demand has been good for U.S. soybeans lately, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “The weather looks a bit more promising as we move into the month of August.”

 

Wheat

 

“There is rain in the forecast for Nebraska and the Dakotas that will slow the current harvest pace,” The Hightower Report said. That should continue supporting wheat harvest prices into the weekend.

 

With the weakness in the U.S. dollar, wheat surged today. “Prices drew additional support from production cuts in the U.S./EU/Argentina regions,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.

 

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