In this file:
· POLITICO Playbook: Biden’s advantages pile up
· More Voters Rule Out Trump Than Biden
· Joe Biden Extends Lead As Coronavirus, Protests Sink President Trump Job Approval: IBD/TIPP Poll
POLITICO Playbook: Biden’s advantages pile up
Jake Sherman, POLITICO
NOTHING IS DONE until it’s done. The election is 124 DAYS and something like 300,000 TRUMP news cycles away. But there is now a compelling pile of evidence that JOE BIDEN is in an absolutely commanding position against the incumbent President DONALD TRUMP.
-- HE LEADS in nearly every national poll and almost all competitive state surveys. TRUMP’S approval rating is in the toilet, and most people believe the country is on the wrong track. RCP overview of public polls
-- BIDEN outraised TRUMP for the second month in a row. NATASHA KORECKI: “The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee late Wednesday reported that they together raised $141 million in June, for a total cash haul of $282.1 million for the quarter.
“Both figures best Donald Trump and the Republican National Committee, which reported $131 million in June and $266 million during the second fundraising quarter of the year. The Trump campaign, however, reports it still has plenty sitting in the bank, with $295 million cash on hand. Democrats did not disclose that figure on Wednesday.” POLITICO
-- SENATE REPUBLICANS are starting to sweat a bit. JOHN BRESNAHAN and MARIANNE LEVINE: “Senate Republicans can’t catch a break”: “‘The optimist in me would say the odds of us getting a break in the future are greater because we’ve had such a run of bad luck,’ joked Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), who served in the House GOP leadership when Republicans there lost the majority in 2006. ‘I think it may very well work out that way.’ …
“‘You gotta play the hand you’re dealt. But yeah, we’ve been getting some bad cards lately,’ said Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) ‘You’ve gotta keep playing and hopefully your luck changes at some point.’ ‘I’m still very confident we can win a lot of these races this fall,’ Thune added. ‘But timing and circumstances and the political environment have a lot to do with that. We’ll see what it looks like then.’”
AND, ALL THIS ASIDE, it does not appear as if TRUMP has any interest in changing his circumstance...
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More Voters Rule Out Trump Than Biden
Mixed results on who has presidential ‘stamina’
Source: Monmouth University
Jul 2, 2020
West Long Branch, NJ – Half of the nation’s electorate says they have ruled out voting for Donald Trump in November, while 4 in 10 say the same about Joe Biden. Biden currently holds a 12 point lead in the presidential race according to the latest Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Biden holds a significant advantage among the 1 in 5 voters who do not have a favorable opinion of either candidate. Slightly more voters say they are confident about the challenger’s mental and physical stamina than say the same about the incumbent.
Biden currently has the support of 53% of registered voters and Trump has the support of 41%. This is similar to the Democrat’s 52% to 41% lead in early June. Biden’s edge stood at 50% to 41% in May, 48% to 44% in April, and 48% to 45% in March.
Slightly more voters say they are certain about their support for Biden (40%) than say the same about Trump (34%). Fully half (50%), though, say they are not at all likely to support the incumbent while 39% say the same about the challenger. In addition to Biden’s current firm support, another 3% say they are very likely to vote for him and 9% are somewhat likely, while 6% are not too likely. In addition to Trump’s current firm support, another 2% say they are very likely to vote for him and 6% are somewhat likely, while 6% are not too likely. Among white voters with a college degree, 62% have ruled out a vote for Trump while just 31% say the same about Biden. On the other hand, 56% of white voters without a college degree are not at all likely to support Biden while 37% say the same about Trump. Among voters from other racial or ethnic groups, 61% have ruled out Trump and just 22% say the same for Biden.
“Half of all registered voters have ruled out backing Trump. Trump showed in 2016 that he can thread the needle, but these results suggest the president has even less room for error in 2020. He must convert some of those unlikely supporters if he is to win a second term,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
A key difference from four years ago is that fewer voters have a negative opinion of the Democratic nominee. Biden’s rating stands at 44% favorable and 44% unfavorable. It was 42%–49% in early June. Hillary Clinton’s rating in July 2016 was 34% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Trump currently has a negative 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable opinion. It was 38%–57% in early June. As a candidate four years ago, he held a 31% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating.
Overall, 21% of all registered voters do not have a favorable opinion of either party’s nominee. Trump did well with this “double negative” group in 2016. The National Election Pool exit poll showed him ultimately winning their vote after Clinton held a small edge throughout the campaign. But he is getting swamped among these voters this time around. Biden leads by 55% to 21% among this group.
“Four years ago, Clinton was the insider candidate who approximated an incumbent in many voters’ minds. There is no mistaking who wears that mantle this year. Trump’s problem is that voters who aren’t enamored with either candidate tend to go for change,” said Murray.
Concerns about the two septuagenarians’ faculties have become prominent in recent media coverage and internet memes. The poll finds that more voters are at least somewhat confident that Biden (52%) has the mental and physical stamina to carry out the job of president than say the same about Trump (45%). However, more are likely to say they feel very confident about Trump (33%) than Biden (23%). This is due to a partisan phenomenon where Trump’s base is more likely to offer its support without qualification. About 9 in 10 Republicans and Democrats alike say they are at least somewhat confident in their respective party candidate’s stamina, but Republicans are more likely to say they are very confident about Trump (72%) than Democrats are for Biden (47%).
“Biden hasn’t developed the kind of adulation among his base that Trump can count on from his supporters. This seems to be a fairly common trend in the campaign so far and is at least partly due to the Democrat being out of the public eye during the pandemic,” said Murray. Voter opinion on handling the pandemic as well as race relations in a Monmouth poll taken early last month also showed lower levels of high confidence among Democrats for Biden on those issues than Republicans expressed about Trump.
The Monmouth University Poll finds that voter optimism for the 2020 presidential election has been fairly stable – it has hovered between 62% and 65% since February – but there has been a shift in enthusiasm. Currently, 40% of voters feel more enthusiastic about this election compared to past elections, 15% are less enthusiastic, and 44% say they feel about the same level of enthusiasm. Just four weeks ago, 28% were more enthusiastic, 24% less enthusiastic and 47% about the same. Enthusiasm has increased among both Republicans (from 27% to 41%) and Democrats alike (from 32% to 47%). The key difference is that the Republican shift has come mainly from those who felt the same level of enthusiasm as past elections (from 60% to 48%), but the Democratic gains have come mainly from those who had been feeling less enthusiastic (from 32% to 10%).
The Monmouth University Poll also posed a generic ballot test for the U.S. House of Representatives election, which shows 50% of voters currently supporting the Democratic candidate in their district and 42% backing the Republican. This result is similar to last month’s poll release (52% to 43%) as well as to polling at a similar point in the last midterm election (48% to 41% in June 2018). Democrats went on to win the national House vote by 8 points that November (53% to 45%).
A note on the impact of third party candidates in the vote choice question:
Joe Biden Extends Lead As Coronavirus, Protests Sink President Trump Job Approval: IBD/TIPP Poll
Jed Graham, Investor's Business Daily
Vice President Joe Biden has extended his lead over President Donald Trump to eight points among registered voters, the July IBD/TIPP Poll finds. Trump's reelection campaign is ailing as Americans widely disapprove of his handling of the coronavirus crisis, protests over George Floyd's killing and his overall job performance.
Joe Biden Vs. Donald Trump
Joe Biden leads President Trump 48%-40% among registered voters, after Biden led 45%-42% a month ago. In May, the two candidates were tied at 43%.
Biden leads among independent voters, 40%-34%. Meanwhile, Democrats seem to have moved past intraparty squabbles and come home to Biden. He led Trump 91%-4% among Democrats. Trump is having a harder time holding down GOP votes. He leads among Republicans, 89%-8%.
Among independents, 40% back Biden vs. 34% for President Trump. That's vs. 39%-34% a month ago.
Self-described investors, with household ownership of at least $10,000 in equities or mutual funds, narrowly back Trump, 47%-45%. But Trump's support dived among noninvestors. Trump trails Biden among noninvestors 35%-51% vs. 40%-44% a month ago.
The stock market has bounced back much faster from the coronavirus crash than the economy as a whole. The Nasdaq composite is above 10,000, higher than it was before the Covid-19 lockdown. The Dow Jones hasn't come back that far, but has rallied to within about 12% of a record high. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting unemployment benefits of one kind or another is up about 30 million from a year ago.
Among swing-state voters included in the IBD/TIPP Poll, Biden leads Trump, 57%-33%. Those states classified as swing states based on 2016 results include Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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