The WTO and TPP amid the U.S.-China trade war
by Kazuhito Yamashita, Opinion, The Japan Times
Jun 29, 2020
Robert Azevedo, director-general of the World Trade Organization, will leave the office in August, a year before the end of his term. Behind his sudden resignation is the disfunction of the WTO.
The WTO has two key functions. One is legislative drawing up new rules on trade in response to economic changes over time through negotiations among the member countries. The other is a judicial dispute settlement procedures to judge whether member states are following its rules when a trade dispute crops up and to call on violators to correct their behavior.
What's going in the rule-making negotiations at the WTO? The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade governed goods trade. The Uruguay round negotiations under GATT, which started in 1986 and were concluded in 1993, strengthened rules on agricultural and textile trade which had been insufficient and made new rules on services trade and intellectual property rights, areas that had previously not been covered. Out of this the WTO was born.
Under the WTO, the Doha round negotiations started in 2001 aiming at further liberalization. But antagonism between the developed and developing countries brought the talks to a virtual halt in 2011. Although there was a little progress, the talks produced no great changes to the WTO rules agreed on in the Uruguay round talks. Rules that were adopted 27 years ago are still applied without change today. The further liberalization of goods and services trade remains deadlocked and the rules are not attuned to new forms of trade, including e-commerce.
The interests of developed and developing countries also collided during the GATT talks. Brazil and India opposed the launch of the Uruguay round itself as they objected to liberalizing services trade where they lacked competitiveness. The developed countries on their part could not align their policies with each other. The European Union was negative about including agriculture, its cornerstone industry, in the agenda of the talks. The Uruguay round finally started four years after it was proposed by the United States.
A big factor behind the U.S. call for launching the talks was the EUs agricultural policy, especially its export subsidies that led to lower prices in international markets. The U.S. wanted to introduce regulations in this area. The dispute settlement procedures under GATT were so inadequate that even if the U.S. won the dispute, it could not impose its will on the EU.
What determined the course of the Uruguay Round talks was indeed the agricultural dispute between the U.S. and the EU. Little progress was made as the agricultural issue hijacked the talks, which began in 1986. It was as late as the end of 1992 that the U.S. and the EU struck an agreement on agricultural subsidies, and the talks were concluded the following year.
In the Doha round of the WTO talks, the U.S. and the EU thought that if they could agree on agricultural trade, the whole talks would be successfully wrapped up. Immediately before a ministerial conference in Cancun, Mexico in September 2003 two years after the start of the talks the two parties agreed to put a ceiling of 100 percent on tariffs on agricultural imports. But the developing countries led by Brazil, China and India called on the developed countries to drastically reduce their agricultural subsidies. Thus the Cancun conference broke down without an agreement.
In the Uruguay round, the U.S., the EU, Japan and Canada (Australia replaced Canada on agricultural trade) negotiated first. The agreement among the four parties was then forwarded to other participants first to seven countries, then 13 and next to 21 nations to reach a final accord. In the Doha round, developing countries objected to such a negotiation method. It should be noted, however, that it is democratic to make a decision in a conference of large numbers of countries, but it's quite difficult to reach a consensus this way.
What influenced the course of the Doha round talks was that China joined the WTO beginning with this round. The U.S. and the EU began to be pushed back by the opinions of the developing countries joined by China, which quickly went on to become the world's second-largest economy. Under this situation the Doha round drifted. It is now almost impossible to establish new trade rules under the WTO.
On the other hand, dispute settlement procedures were much strengthened under the WTO compared with those under GATT and have functioned well in the absence of new rules. But since the old rules remain in force, moves to compensate for the lack of new rules through interpretation have become noticeable. New interpretations have been made, as if to create new laws. Cases also have arisen in which interpretations made by legal experts in accordance with the text of rules do not agree with the intention of the countries that took part in the negotiations. It may be unavoidable to some extent that documents produced by negotiators for the sake of political settlements and compromise in adjusting conflicting interests of various countries are interpreted by legal experts differently from the intentions of the original negotiators.
The U.S. has begun to feel frustrated that the conclusions it desires are not reached due to that kind of judgment by legal experts. It is also unhappy that it takes too long before final conclusions are reached...