In this file:
· USDA: record June 1st U.S. hog herd
· Hogs and Pigs Report: Uncertainty Remains with Record-Large Inventory
· U.S. hog inventory up 5%
· Audio: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
USDA: record June 1st U.S. hog herd
By John Perkins, Brownfield
June 25, 2020
The USDA says there were a record number of hogs and pigs in the U.S. on June 1st, 2020, but numbers could be contracting in the second half of the year.
The herd of 79.634 million head was up 3% from the previous quarter and 5% above a year ago, including a record number of market hogs at 73.308 million head, 6% higher, but a tighter breeding supply, down 1% on the year at 6.326 million head. The March through May pig crop and second quarter sow farrowings were both 1% higher than last year, at 34.933 million and 3.172 million head, respectively, with a record number of pigs saved per litter at 11.01.
The report does indicate that surveyed producers intend to reduce farrowings in the third and fourth quarter of the year...
Hogs and Pigs Report: Uncertainty Remains with Record-Large Inventory
Jennifer Shike, FarmJournal's Pork
June 25, 2020
In the June USDA report, the total inventory for all hogs and pigs on June 1 was a record-large 79.6 million head, up 5% from a year ago and up 3% from Dec. 1. ( Farm Journal's PORK )
A record-large inventory of hogs on June 1 doesn’t bode well for prices, analysts said on Thursday during a teleconference of the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, funded by the Pork Checkoff. The outlook contains many uncertainties, including the backlog of hogs, future slaughter capacity and the ever-present elephant in the room: COVID-19.
The wild card? Demand.
The strength of demand will dictate how fast hogs can be pulled through the system and the prices that producers will see, said Lee Schulz, associate professor at Iowa State University.
“Overall demand has been pretty strong coming into this situation,” Schulz added. “Looking at futures prices further out, there is a bit of optimism there.”
A Look at the Numbers
In the June USDA report, the total inventory for all hogs and pigs on June 1 was a record-large 79.6 million head, reported economist Steve Meyer of Kerns & Associates, up 5% from a year ago and up 3% from Dec. 1.
The market hog inventory on June 1 was 73.3 million, up 6% from 2019 and up 3% from the previous quarter.
The breeding inventory numbers came in at 6.33 million head, down 1% from a year ago and down 1% from March 1. The March to May 2020 pig crop, at 34.9 million head, was up 1% from 2019. The number of sows that farrowed during this three-month period was up 1% from 2019 at 3.17 million head, which represents 50% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high of 11.01, compared with 11.00 last year.
U.S. hog producers intend to farrow 3.12 million sows during the June to August 2020 quarter, down 5% from the actual farrowing during the same period in 2019, and down 2% from the same period in 2018. Intended farrowings for September to November 2020, at 3.09 million sows, are down 5% from the same period in 2019 and down 4% from the same period in 2018.
A Bearish Report
“It’s hard to find too many things on the positive side out of this report by and large,” said Scott Brown, associate Extension professor at the University of Missouri-Columbia. “A lot of news we got out of this report is bearish. It reminds me to keep saying that the aggregate supply of hogs is very inelastic to low returns.”
The numbers varied wildly in the heaviest two weight categories of the June 1 market hog inventory. The 120-179 pounds category was at 16.09 million head, up 11.8% from last year, compared to analysts’ pre-report expectations of 5.2%. The over 180-pound category was at 14.687 million head, up 12.8% from last year compared to analysts’ expectations of 16.86%.
Brown said the 120-179 weight category indicates there are a lot of hogs to come to market in the remainder of 2020, which will continue to create a lot of challenges for the industry. Even though the over 180-pound category estimates came in below analyst expectations, Brown said when you look at that group as a percentage of total market inventory, it’s still up 1.3% relative to a year ago.
“I’m a little more bearish that the general economy turndown will be worse than I thought earlier on,” Brown said. “As I think about report today, it’s a bad combination of more hogs than we would have anticipated and not as much adjustment to breeding inventory relative to what we would have thought. It looks to be a softer demand picture as we go through remainder of 2020.”
Larger Pig Crops ...
Disappearing Hogs ...
U.S. hog inventory up 5%
In the 120- to 179-pound group, there were 16.09 million head, up 11.8% from last year. The 180-and-over group had 14.687 million head up 12.8% from last year.
Ann Hess, National Hog Farmer
Jun 25, 2020
The U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on June 1 was 79.634 million head, up 5.2% from June of last year, and up 3% from March 1, according to the quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report released by the USDA Thursday. The average pre-report estimate had total inventory up 3.7%.
Breeding inventory, at 6.326 million head, was down 84,000 pigs or 1.3% from last year, and down 1% from the previous quarter. Average pre-report estimates had that number 1.9% lower than a year ago.
Market hog inventory, at 73.38 million head, was up 5.8% from last year, and up 3% from last quarter. Trade experts expected that number to be up 4.2%.
For the under-50-pounds weight category, there were 22.16 million head, down only 0.2% from last year. Trade had expected that number to be down 2.2%. In the 50-to-119-pounds group there were 20.37 million head, up 3.4% from last year. Analysts had expected that number to be more than 2.6%. There were 16.09 million head in the 120-to-179-pounds weight category, up 11.8% from last year. Analysts had expected that number to increase 5.2%. Finally for the 180-and-over group, there were 14.687 million head, up 12.8% from last year. Analysts had anticipated that number to be up 16.86%.
The March-May 2020 pig crop, at 34.933 million head, was up 1.4% from 2019. Analysts expected that number to be down 1%. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.172 million head, up 1.2%. Trade had predicted the opposite with that figure down 1.2% from 2019. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high of 11.01 for the March-May period, compared to 11.00 last year.
U.S. hog producers intend to have 3.123 million sows farrow during the June-August 2020 quarter, down 4.6% from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier. Analysts had pegged that figure down 4.8%. Intended farrowings for September-November 2020, at 3.09 million sows, are down 5.4% from the same period one year earlier. Trade expected that number to be down 4.5%.
The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 49% of the total U.S. hog inventory, up 2% from the previous year.
Scott Brown, associate Extension professor at the University of Missouri-Columbia, says the wildly variant numbers in the 120-to-179-pounds group and the 180-and-over caught his attention.
"If you look at the pre-report average up 5.2% yet we ended up 11.8, well outside the range. It just reminds me that we have a lot of hogs to come to market the remainder of 2020 and is going to create a lot of challenges for us," Brown says. "When you look at the greater than 180 as a percentage of total market inventory, it's up about 1.3% relative to where it was a year ago, so a larger percentage of the market inventory and that greater than 180, that certainly looks like a record level, especially as you look at the last 10 or 15 years of data. A lot of hogs we still have left to deal with, so not a lot of help on the supply side, from a price standpoint."
Lee Schulz, associate professor of economics at Iowa State University, expects the March-May sows farrowing number coming in 2.4 percentage points higher than pre-report expectations, and 1.2% higher than a year ago, will mean more supply on the market.
"Really the biggest increase came in April and May with sows farrowing up 2.8% and 1.3% respectively," Schulz says. "You did see that larger sow farrowing that did give us that much bigger pig crop, but to give you an idea, when you look at farrowing intentions, they added 53,000 sows farrowing from the second intentions for that March-May as to what we've seen at the actual sows farrowing and so that was up 1.7% from that first intentions number. Now, as we see farrowing intentions for June-August, and September-November, those are well below year-ago levels, but just given that trend and what the size of that breeding herd is, I think those numbers could come in higher than what this report is suggesting, which is going to lead to larger pig crops and more supply on the market."
David Miller, chief economist with Decision Innovation Solutions, reconciled his weekly calculations model with the June inventory numbers and has come up with the figure of 2.1 million head that have disappeared either through euthanization or direct sales...
Audio: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
BY Rural Radio Network
via KTIC (NE) - June 25, 2020
The latest quarterly hog and pig report from USDA shows the US hog inventory is up 5%.
As of June 1, 2020 the United States inventory of all hogs and pigs was 79.6 million head. This was up 5 percent from June 1, 2019, and up 3 percent from March 1, 2020.
Breeding inventory of hogs in the US came in at 6.33 million head. That is down 1 percent from last year, and down 1 percent from the previous quarter. The March-May 2020 pig crop, at 34.9 million head, was up 1 percent from 2019. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.17 million head, up 1 percent from 2019. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 percent of the
breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high of 11.01 for the March-May period, compared to
11.00 last year.
Market hog inventory was up 6 percent from last year at 73.3 million head. That was also up 3 percent from last quarter...
more, including table, chart, audio [2:46 min.]