African swine fever continues to benefit NZ red meat sector
The Country/NZ Herald (New Zealand)
25 Jun, 2020
African swine fever (ASF) is still good news for New Zealand's red meat sector, says Rabobank's animal proteins analyst Blake Holgate.
Despite the substantial impacts of Covid-19, AFS remains the
dominant issue in global animal protein markets, according to Rabobank's report African Swine Fever: A Global Update.
And with ASF expected to tighten global pork supply in 2020, the New Zealand red meat sector will continue to benefit from the resulting strong demand for alternative sources of animal proteins.
The report says ASF is impacting pig herds and restricting pork production in a number of regions across the globe.
"China has lost several hundred million pigs to the disease over recent years – following a major ASF outbreak in August 2018 – and the disease has continued to spread in 2020, albeit at a much slower pace than previously" Holgate said.
"With a number of government policies released to encourage pork production, we expect the Chinese pig herd will rebound strongly in 2020. But with rebuilding efforts reducing slaughter numbers, we maintain our view that China's 2020 pork production will drop a further 15 to 20 per cent below the low level of production recorded in 2019."
The report says pork production in Vietnam and in the Philippines is also forecast to decline due to ASF, while concerns over further spread of the disease in Europe remain high.
"ASF outbreaks continue in both Vietnam and the Philippines and we expect to see a fall in pork production of close to 10 per cent in both these countries," Holgate said.
"In Europe, the potential for ASF spreading is high...
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