[Weds]: Ahead of the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, traders are anticipating hog inventory at 78.5 million head. If realized, that would be 3.7% higher year-to-year, according to Brugler Marketing. That increase is expected to come mostly from heavier hogs… The potential bearish news is that China is putting up trade barriers for poultry, pork and beef exporters. This leaves too much meat for U.S. consumers to absorb, according to The Hightower Report. However, China seems to have the need for increasing meat imports… [Tues]: National Daily Hog and Pork Summary / National carcass base was 11 cents lower… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was 62 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $1.66…  “The monthly cold storage report carried a bullish tilt and traders are hoping that this could lead to more buying in the pork market to restock frozen supplies,” the Hightower Report said… Hog markets were higher on supportive news from the monthly cold storage and hopes of more buying in the pork market…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Wed 6/24/2020 8:31 AM

 

Lean hogs - The market is trying to absorb a large up-front supply, and probing for a short-term low. Once this backlog of hogs which could not be slaughtered during a period of slower capacity from the industry are cleaned up, the market will be in better position for a recovery bounce, according The Hightower Report.

 

Ahead of the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, traders are anticipating hog inventory at 78.5 million head. If realized, that would be 3.7% higher year-to-year, according to Brugler Marketing. That increase is expected to come mostly from heavier hogs, as traders estimate +180-pound hogs at 18% above 2019.

 

China slowing meat purchases

 

The potential bearish news is that China is putting up trade barriers for poultry, pork and beef exporters. This leaves too much meat for U.S. consumers to absorb, according to The Hightower Report. However, China seems to have the need for increasing meat imports, so the compliance issues may be short-lived.

 

Tue 6/23/2020 4:47 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base was 11 cents lower to $28.36/cwt.

National live was 6 cents higher to $26.09

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was 62 cents higher to $28.55

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $1.66 to $63.18/cwt.

 

Pork traders saw bullish numbers in the cold storage report. “The monthly cold storage report carried a bullish tilt and traders are hoping that this could lead to more buying in the pork market to restock frozen supplies,” the Hightower Report said. “Pork cut-out values at midsession came in at $63.99, down $0.85 on the day.”

 

“Yesterday’s Cold Storage report showed May pork stocks down 25.8% from last year and down 23.6% from April,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Pork stocks normally drop just 4.8% from April to May so the report was considered very bullish. This was the largest monthly drop on record and stocks are now at their lowest levels since August of 2011.”

 

Livestock finds support higher

 

Cattle markets were sharply higher on Tuesday on the idea demand would be improved by falling beef prices, as well as trends in the cash markets. “August cattle closed sharply higher on the day and the buying helped push the market up to the highest level since June 10.”

 

Hog markets were higher on supportive news from the monthly cold storage and hopes of more buying in the pork market. “July hogs closed slightly higher on the session after choppy and two-sided trade early,” the Hightower Report said. “August and deferred contracts are trading sharply higher on the day.”

 

Markets stay defensive

 

“There was some scuttlebutt in the news overnight suggesting that the US/Chinese trade deal was on the skids,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “That got corrected later in the evening, but the markets remained on the defensive amidst concerns about future Chines buying of US goods. Weather forecasts suggest a wetter pattern to develop over the Norther Plains.”

 

Traders were watching the impact of hog numbers and weather on grain markets. “US June 1 hog and pig report should show hog numbers up 3%, kept for breeding down 2% and marketings up 4%,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “US Midwest could see short waves of showers every 3-4 days favoring the eastern states.”

 

Corn

 

“Corn futures traded lower,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Concern about demand and a mostly favorable US Midwest 2 week forecast weighed on prices. Talk that last week’s US ethanol production increased and stocks dropped offered support to US domestic basis and futures.”

 

Analysts on Tuesday were watching the impact of crop conditions and a favorable weather outlook on corn markets. “Corn prices traded lower on improving crop conditions and a favorable weather outlook for the US Midwest over the next few days,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said.

 

Soybeans

 

“Soybeans trade was mixed to lower,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Word that China wants guarantee that imports of grains, soybeans and meat are virus free offered resistance. New crop Nov dropped an talk US 2020 supplies could be increasing. SN gained on SX in an attempt to move commercial owned soybeans to crushers.”

 

Uncertainty over trade with China, along with fairly favorable weather outlooks, were pushing soybeans lower Tuesday. “Soybean prices set back on a favorable weather outlook across the US Midwest for the next few days,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Prices drew additional pressure from uncertainty over the continuation of Chinese buying of US goods.”

 

Wheat

 

“The wheat market was mixed with KC gaining on Mpls from intermarket spread activity,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “KC garnered strength as recent rain events are expected to delay harvest activity, Chicago prices were higher, bouncing off 8-9 month lows that were hit recently. Mpls saw additional pressure from forecasts suggesting beneficial moisture.”

 

“Wheat futures closed mixed,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Chicago and KC gained on corn and spring wheat… Most of the drop was in wheat due to increase harvest activity and lower Europe, Russia and Australia prices. Spring wheat futures may have traded lower on talk that China may be requesting exporters guarantee that shipments are virus free.”

 

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