[Weds]: The market is probing for a short-term low. Beef prices seem cheap enough now to attract better demand. Restaurants are reopening and order flow may be increasing, according to The Hightower Report… [Tues]: Afternoon National Slaughter Cattle Review / Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon was lower on Choice and lower on Select… Choice fell $2.25… Select was down 73 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 430 sold live for $97, and 4,637 head sold dressed for $152-155. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were 916 head sold live for $97-98, and 1,648 head sold dressed for $155… Cattle markets were sharply higher on Tuesday on the idea demand would be improved by falling beef prices, as well as trends in the cash markets…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Wed 6/24/2020 8:31 AM

 

Cattle - Yesterday cattle futures were up 60 cents to $2.07 at the closing bell. So far there are 26 deliveries against June fats. June futures expire next Tuesday, Brugler Marketing said.

 

The market is probing for a short-term low. Beef prices seem cheap enough now to attract better demand. Restaurants are reopening and order flow may be increasing, according to The Hightower Report.

 

Futures prices were sharply higher as speculative funds bet on an increase in export demand. Few speculative longs dare enter the expiring June contract for fear of delivery and the spot contract failed to join the rally, according to The Cattle Report.

 

China slowing meat purchases

 

The potential bearish news is that China is putting up trade barriers for poultry, pork and beef exporters. This leaves too much meat for U.S. consumers to absorb, according to The Hightower Report. However, China seems to have the need for increasing meat imports, so the compliance issues may be short-lived.

 

Tue 6/23/2020 4:47 PM

 

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon was lower on Choice and lower on Select, the USDA said.

 

Choice fell $2.25 to $211.81/cwt.

Select was down 73 cents to $203.57.

 

In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 430 sold live for $97, and 4,637 head sold dressed for $152-155. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were 916 head sold live for $97-98, and 1,648 head sold dressed for $155.

 

“Ideas that the break in the beef market over the past month should help improve the demand situation, plus talk that cash markets have pulled back to near $95.00 and could firm up if beef turns are seen as positive factors,” the Hightower Report said. “Boxed beef cut-out values at midsession came in at $212.31, down $1.75 on the day.”

 

“Yesterday’s Cold Storage report showed beef stocks in May were up 2.5% from last year but down 13.4% from April,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Last week, slaughter was down 1.8% from the same week last year but beef production was up 1.5% from the same week last year due to heavy carcass weights.”

 

Livestock finds support higher

 

Cattle markets were sharply higher on Tuesday on the idea demand would be improved by falling beef prices, as well as trends in the cash markets. “August cattle closed sharply higher on the day and the buying helped push the market up to the highest level since June 10.”

 

Hog markets were higher on supportive news from the monthly cold storage and hopes of more buying in the pork market. “July hogs closed slightly higher on the session after choppy and two-sided trade early,” the Hightower Report said. “August and deferred contracts are trading sharply higher on the day.”

 

Markets stay defensive

 

“There was some scuttlebutt in the news overnight suggesting that the US/Chinese trade deal was on the skids,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “That got corrected later in the evening, but the markets remained on the defensive amidst concerns about future Chines buying of US goods. Weather forecasts suggest a wetter pattern to develop over the Norther Plains.”

 

Traders were watching the impact of hog numbers and weather on grain markets. “US June 1 hog and pig report should show hog numbers up 3%, kept for breeding down 2% and marketings up 4%,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “US Midwest could see short waves of showers every 3-4 days favoring the eastern states.”

 

Corn

 

“Corn futures traded lower,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Concern about demand and a mostly favorable US Midwest 2 week forecast weighed on prices. Talk that last week’s US ethanol production increased and stocks dropped offered support to US domestic basis and futures.”

 

Analysts on Tuesday were watching the impact of crop conditions and a favorable weather outlook on corn markets. “Corn prices traded lower on improving crop conditions and a favorable weather outlook for the US Midwest over the next few days,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said.

 

Soybeans

 

“Soybeans trade was mixed to lower,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Word that China wants guarantee that imports of grains, soybeans and meat are virus free offered resistance. New crop Nov dropped an talk US 2020 supplies could be increasing. SN gained on SX in an attempt to move commercial owned soybeans to crushers.”

 

Uncertainty over trade with China, along with fairly favorable weather outlooks, were pushing soybeans lower Tuesday. “Soybean prices set back on a favorable weather outlook across the US Midwest for the next few days,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Prices drew additional pressure from uncertainty over the continuation of Chinese buying of US goods.”

 

Wheat

 

“The wheat market was mixed with KC gaining on Mpls from intermarket spread activity,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “KC garnered strength as recent rain events are expected to delay harvest activity, Chicago prices were higher, bouncing off 8-9 month lows that were hit recently. Mpls saw additional pressure from forecasts suggesting beneficial moisture.”

 

“Wheat futures closed mixed,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Chicago and KC gained on corn and spring wheat… Most of the drop was in wheat due to increase harvest activity and lower Europe, Russia and Australia prices. Spring wheat futures may have traded lower on talk that China may be requesting exporters guarantee that shipments are virus free.”

 

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