[Tues]: “Slaughter chain-speed concerns keep selling pressure alive in the hog market as the lean hog market has been trying to get control on the growing supply of readily available hogs,” Total Farm Marketing said… One of China’s largest pig breeders is expecting the hog output from the Asian nation to recover from last year’s African Swine Fever epidemic, Allendale said… [Mon]: National carcass base was down 16 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base price was not reported… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $2.66… “The cash index is a bit lower, and pork values may have put in a top,” Stewart-Peterson said… Traders continue to have worries about the impact of hog slaughter rates moving back up…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Tue 5/19/2020 8:29 AM

 

Lean hogs - “Slaughter chain-speed concerns keep selling pressure alive in the hog market as the lean hog market has been trying to get control on the growing supply of readily available hogs,” Total Farm Marketing said. “Slaughter paces have improved, and retail values are supportive.”

 

After May 4’s peak, “the (lean hog) market remains in a short-term downtrend channel,” The Hightower Report said. “Traders remain concerned that the pickup in hog slaughter over the past few weeks will cause pork prices to continue to push lower.”

 

China expects pork production to rise

 

One of China’s largest pig breeders is expecting the hog output from the Asian nation to recover from last year’s African Swine Fever epidemic, Allendale said. The chairman of New Hope Group said prices for pork should remain high this year, “but could fall below production costs in the coming years as new players, including real estate and internet companies, turn to farming.”

 

The USDA will be releasing their Cold Storage report on Thursday and Cattle on Feed report on Friday.

 

Mon 5/18/2020 4:46 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base was down 16 cents to $36.90/cwt.

National live was up 13 cents to $30.02

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base price was not reported due to confidentiality

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $2.66 to $107.46/cwt.

 

“The cash index is a bit lower, and pork values may have put in a top,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Higher slaughter lately has helped to rebuild pork supplies and kill last week was up 18.5% from the previous week. China purchases have been strong lately, and if pork prices continue to pull back, rumors about increasing China ag purchases could come true.”

 

Traders continue to have worries about the impact of hog slaughter rates moving back up. “Traders remain concerned that the pickup in hog slaughter over the past few weeks will cause pork prices to continue to push lower,” the Hightower Report said. “However the steady but slow increase in the lean hog index leaves July hogs at a stiff discount to the cash market.”

 

Cattle higher, hogs see choppy waters

 

Cattle markets moved higher on Monday as traders looked to take advantage of the discount to the cash market. “June cattle closed sharply higher on the session and experienced the highest close since March 10,” the Hightower Report said. “The highs were 100.00 and the rally leaves the market a bit overbought.”

 

Hog markets had a choppy day on Monday before ultimately settling lower. “July hogs closed slightly lower after choppy and two-sided trade,” the Hightower Report said. “The market remains in a short-term downtrend channel and it will take a move over 59.57 to penetrate the downtrend channel and turn the charts bullish.”

 

Grains go mixed as soybeans find support

 

“The grain markets were mixed with the row crops garnering strength from outside markets and Chinese buying optimism,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “The wheat market saw pressure from beneficial rains in the US Southern Plains, along with rains in Europe, Black Sea and Australia. Farmer engagement is basically a non-event as the focus is on field work.”

 

Global news supported soybeans. “Indonesia has announced an ambitious biodiesel program which helped to boost palm oil and soybean oil prices overnight,” Stewart-Peterson said. “China has been an active buyer of US beans over the past few weeks, and there were rumors circulating over the weekend that these purchases will continue, or even increase.”

 

Corn

 

Corn markets moved higher Monday, but a variety of factors limited gains. “The corn market traded slightly higher on a bout of short covering and strength in the crude oil market,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Gains were limited from rapid planting progress, big crop ideas (ending stocks) and weakness in the wheat market.”

 

“Ethanol prices are up today, but have set back over the past week or so, likely due to the fact that many plants across the country have begun to reopen or are ramping up production,” Stewart-Peterson said. “…Many areas of the country received beneficial rains over the weekend and plentiful acres are keeping new buyers somewhat hesitant.”

 

Soybeans

 

“Soybean traded higher,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Lack of new China buying US soybeans over the weekend offered resistance. Still, reports that China will buy US soybeans has helped trigger new fund buying… Higher financial markets could also be offering support. Talk of higher US 2020 acres and crop could limit the upside in prices.”

 

Oil markets and optimism about China helped push soybeans higher on Monday. “The soybean market traded higher on borrowed strength in the soyoil market, crude oil and Chinese buying optimism for US goods,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Soyoil strength came from crude oil and unwinding of long meal/oil spread activity.”

 

Wheat

 

“Technical related selling push wheat futures to 2 month lows,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Continued drop in new crop Russian wheat export prices and slow global export trade continues to offer resistance to Futures. Some though feel that a drier trend in Europe and parts of the Black Sea could eventually drop Europe and Black Sea final wheat crops.”

 

Wheat was lower due to the big supply, as well as demand concerns. “The wheat market was weaker on plentiful supplies and weak demand for US wheat,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Mpls lagged KC and Chicago from delayed spring wheat planting. KC saw additional pressure from beneficial rains in the HRW area over the weekend.”

 

iowafarmertoday.com