[Thurs]: “Q1 pork supply has been more than expected,” Allendale said. In the six weeks completed for 2020 hog slaughter has been 6.3% over last year. Pork production, due to higher weights, has been 8.3% over last year. Last week's numbers from USDA were up 7.2% and up 8.1% respectively… [Weds]: National carcass base down $1.53… Iowa-Minnesota carcass down 50 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 31 cents… April lean hogs were down 45 cents to $63.77, $1.27 off the contract high. The market closed lower for the third consecutive session, says Hightower. Despite higher prices in earlier trading, “weakness in the cash market and weakness in the pork product market continues to spark selling,” Hightower said… USDA increased domestic pork production for every quarter of 2020 in its latest report. Stewart-Peterson says while that is bearish news, “the drop in production from the first to second quarter has now increased to 415 million pounds, the biggest drop since 2008”…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Thu 2/13/2020 9:18 AM

 

Lean hogs - With the cash market pushing downward, the market will need a steady flow of good news in order to see April hogs above the reversal low established in February, The Hightower Report said this morning.

 

“Q1 pork supply has been more than expected,” Allendale said. In the six weeks completed for 2020 hog slaughter has been 6.3% over last year. Pork production, due to higher weights, has been 8.3% over last year. Last week's numbers from USDA were up 7.2% and up 8.1% respectively.

 

China impact on livestock market strong

 

Coronavirus news turned negative overnight, which could limit support to prices for cattle, said The Hightower Report. But there is hope the virus will slow in spreading and eventually be eliminated by April, The Report said.

 

Bunge CEO, Gregory Heckman, said it's too early to tell what impact the coronavirus will have agriculture. Also Heckman noted that African swine fever, the other major disease to hit China may have wiped out 40% of their hog herd, Allendale said today.

 

Traders will monitor exports closely today, The Hightower Report said. “Pork values need to rally soon or the bears will remain in control.”

 

Wed 2/12/2020 4:30 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base down $1.53 to $48.34/cwt.

National live down 26 cents to $39.79/cwt.

Iowa-Minnesota carcass down 50 cents to $48.60/cwt.

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon were up 31 cents to $63.96/cwt.

 

April lean hogs were down 45 cents to $63.77, $1.27 off the contract high. The market closed lower for the third consecutive session, says Hightower. Despite higher prices in earlier trading, “weakness in the cash market and weakness in the pork product market continues to spark selling,” Hightower said.

 

Carcass cutout values were sharply lower, coming roughly 19 percent lower than the last peak in January. Stewart-Peterson says market weights for the Iowa-Minnesota market continue to decrease from not only previous week numbers, but those posted at a similar date in 2019.

 

Cattle staying oversold

 

The fed cattle market remains extremely oversold, says The Hightower Report. “There is some hope that the coronavirus will slow the spreading and eventually be eliminated by April,” they said. Hightower added as long as domestic travel and restaurant traffic remains strong, the market could see even better demand ahead.

 

USDA increased domestic pork production for every quarter of 2020 in its latest report. Stewart-Peterson says while that is bearish news, “the drop in production from the first to second quarter has now increased to 415 million pounds, the biggest drop since 2008.”

 

Grain markets recover Wednesday

 

Soybean prices continued to recover Wednesday with moderate gains. Hightower says meal and oil prices also closed higher today. Reports of delays with the Brazilian soybean harvest also brought some bullishness to the market. Two recent meal purchases from South Korea also boosted prices.

 

Renewed optimism regarding the coronavirus could be spurring corn prices upward, says Stewart-Peterson. “Trade in the weeks and months ahead could be back on somewhat normal track,” they said.

 

Corn

 

March corn closed up 3 ¼ cents to $3.83, while May corn closed up 3 cents to $3.87. Hightower says “while corn prices continued their coiling price action within a 9-cent trading range for the 10th session in a row, they were able to lift clear of their recent lows with a moderate gain.”

 

ADM Ag Market View says corn future are becoming oversold, and “U.S. farmers have become reluctant cash sellers.” Weekly ethanol production was down from a week ago, but is still higher than at this point in 2019.

 

Soybeans

 

March soybeans closed up 7 ¾ cents to $8.92, while May beans were up 6 ¼ cents to $9.03 ½. Hightower says meal prices are rising from oversold levels, adding “daily momentum studies would support higher prices, “especially on a close above resistance.”

 

Since bottoming on Feb. 3 at $8.68 ¾, March beans have gained nearly 25 cents, says Stewart-Peterson. “Lack of farmer selling on the push lower and expectations of increased exports helped provide underlying support.”

 

Wheat

 

March wheat prices closed up 5 ½ cents to $5.47 ½, while May wheat was up 4 ½ cents to $5.48 ½. Hightower says after wheat prices tumbled to an eight-week low overnight, prices were “able to find upside momentum this morning s they finished Wednesday’s trading session with a moderate gain.”

 

ADM Ag Market View says higher wheat futures could be linked higher financial and energy markets. Last week “managed funds were large sellers of grain contracts and reducing their long in Chicago wheat.”

 

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