[Weds]: The pipeline to China is also concerning to traders as they are “fearful” about logistics of getting pork into China, especially central China, The Hightower Report said. A slower pipeline would force the U.S. to absorb the current high production until figured out… Supply continues to be an issue for lean hogs as well, as The Hightower Report noted that the hog market “continues to struggle to absorb short-term burdensome supply.” They said sellers in the hog market will stay active as futures move down closer to the cash prices… [Tues]: National carcass base was 2 cents lower… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was up 14 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $1.37… Hog markets have supply concerns, but conditions seem ideal for increasing exports. “Huge domestic supplies have driven the market lower, but the cheap price combined with the high price in China should attract aggressive imports,” the Hightower Report said…  

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Wed 2/12/2020 8:30 AM

 

Lean hogs - The pipeline to China is also concerning to traders as they are “fearful” about logistics of getting pork into China, especially central China, The Hightower Report said. A slower pipeline would force the U.S. to absorb the current high production until figured out.

 

“It looks like the index value is catching up to the futures sell-off in February which has been taking place the last couple weeks,” Allendale said. February contracts expire this Friday, they noted, as Iowa/Minnesota hog prices are being quoted nearly $2 below the 5-day average.

 

Livestock looking for price bounce

 

While oversold, the cattle market is dealing with a lower cash market and weak beef prices, as they continue to watch the long liquidation trend continue, The Hightower Report said.

 

Supply continues to be an issue for lean hogs as well, as The Hightower Report noted that the hog market “continues to struggle to absorb short-term burdensome supply.” They said sellers in the hog market will stay active as futures move down closer to the cash prices.

 

Tue 2/11/2020 4:35 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base was 2 cents lower to $49.92/cwt.

National live was 9 cents higher to $39.78

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was up 14 cents to $49.17

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell $1.37 to $63.65/cwt.

 

Hog markets have supply concerns, but conditions seem ideal for increasing exports. “Huge domestic supplies have driven the market lower, but the cheap price combined with the high price in China should attract aggressive imports,” the Hightower Report said. “The turn higher in pork cut-out values yesterday could be a move in the right direction for the bulls.”

 

“China’s national spot pig price index was up 0.84% overnight and is up 7.22% for the month and up 15.02% year to date,” Stewart-Peterson said. “U.S. pork production last week was up 8.1% from last year, and even though China has been a bigger buyer of U.S. pork lately, this kind of production pace can still more than overwhelm domestic demand.”

 

Cattle closes near lows

 

"April cattle closed sharply lower on the day and closed near the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “This was the lowest close since Sept. 24. Continued concerns with sluggish demand for beef short-term, along with the outlook for very heavy supplies into the second quarter, have helped hold the market in a long liquidation selling trend.”

 

“April hogs closed moderately lower on the session but well up from the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “The market seems to have the short term supply fundamentals to see at least a little less burdensome supply on the US market, especially if the export market gets even more active.”

 

February WASDE uneventful

 

“Typically the February corn report is a non-event and today certainly proved that to once again be the case,” Stewart-Peterson said. “…The gist of the report is that it was neutral. Specifically, projected carryout from January was unchanged at 1.892 bln bushels. The market may have been looking for slightly less with the average estimate of 1.856.”

 

“Today was pretty mundane for having a USDA monthly supply and demand report out,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “There were cuts to the soybean and wheat ending stocks, but the cuts did not appear to impress the trade. Trade has been slow since the trade war began and does not seem to have picked up since the Phase One Trade Agreement was signed."

 

Corn

 

“Corn prices fell on weakness in the wheat market and a reduction in exports from the USDA supply and demand report out this morning,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “The South American crop is expected to be of decent size, allowing for ample amount of supplies for exports.”

 

“Corn futures traded marginally lower,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services, said. “Talk that Argentina corn prices for export are now a discount to US offered resistance. Fact USDA left US 2029/20 carryout unchanged from January offered some resistance. USDA lowered US 2019/20 corn exports 50 mln bu. and raised ethanol use 50 mln bu.”

 

Soybeans

 

“Much like the corn market, today’s report and reaction was absolutely a non-event,” Stewart-Peterson said. “…Today’s projected carryout came in at 424 mln bushels, below the pre-report estimate of 448 mln and down from the January estimate of 475 mln. This was supportive but a 125 mln metric tonne forecast for the Brazilian crop was larger than expected.”

 

"Soybean prices garnered support after the release of the USDA’s monthly supply and demand report,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Gains were limited from ideas of a record bean harvest in Brazil and a decent crop expected out of Argentina. Prices drew additional support from talk that the number of corona virus cases has begun to slow down.”

 

Wheat

 

“Wheat prices were on the defensive, despite a reduction in ending stocks and a hike in exports for most all classes of wheat,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Egypt bought another slug of wheat from the Black Sea Region… We may have seen a haircut to the ending stocks, but the world is not hurting for supplies of wheat.”

 

“Wheat futures traded lower led by Chicago,” Steve Freed, with ADM Investor Services said. “Talk commercials may be shipping spring wheat to Chicago for delivery plus fact Egypt bought Russia and Romanian wheat in their tender offered resistance. USDA lowered US 2019/20 wheat carryout 25 mln bu. due to higher exports. Exports were increased, mostly in spring wheat.”

 

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